527
FXUS65 KABQ 151727 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1027 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
- A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM TODAY,
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
BENIGN WEATHER WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. A BROAD TROUGH TREKKING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WITH MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER NM, WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY. A
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL AID IN INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-
40 FROM KLVS AND KCQC TO THE TEXAS BORDER. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH WILL BE COMMON, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS ACROSS EASTERN NM. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE AREAWIDE TODAY.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, THEN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN A WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES COLDER ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS, IT WILL PUSH A A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD HEIGHTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
MID 50S FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND LOWER 60S FOR EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS BRIEF TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
BREEZY WESTERLIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WINTER SOLSTICE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 914 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN & CENTRAL NM AND WILL IMPACT KLVS AND KTCC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THE TYPICAL NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF MAY GET GUSTY MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VENTILATION IMPROVES TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. FAIR TO GOOD
VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 6KFT AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-40 ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE GUSTS BTW 25 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT, RESULTING IN SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. POOR VENTILATION RATES RETURN
ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE LIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING SHAPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL SEND PERIODIC BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS INTO THE PLAINS, YO-YO-ING TEMPS FROM DAY-TO-DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 15 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 10 50 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 51 17 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 8 55 13 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 17 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 56 9 55 14 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 16 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 58 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 64 16 64 17 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 29 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 46 12 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 28 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 19 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 9 44 16 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 1 47 7 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 51 9 49 13 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 55 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 16 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 20 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 27 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 23 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 19 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 23 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 18 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 23 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 18 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 25 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 26 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 28 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 53 27 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 23 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 14 54 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 24 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 23 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 59 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 20 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 59 18 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 58 15 50 16 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 61 24 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 27 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 28 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 68 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 29 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 71 34 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 70 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
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