797
FXUS65 KABQ 160523 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1023 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
- A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- BREEZY WINDS IN THE EAST TODAY WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONTS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST MID
TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND CLIMB EVEN FURTHER ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY RACING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NOTED
IN THE MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM, WHERE GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40-50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON. WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EJECTING TROUGH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND PROVIDE 5-15 DEGREES OF RELATIVELY COOLING ON MONDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT COOLING, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES OF 40-50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON
TUESDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS, SENDING A WEAK, DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN
NM. THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
DROP IN TEMPS AND A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW THE PRECEDING ONE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, SENDING
ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THIS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. BY LATE WEEK, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, SENDING TEMPS EVEN HIGHER ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BE PUSHING 60F IN THE
ABQ METRO, WITH LOW TO MID-50S IN NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
THE LITTLE SNOWPACK THAT REMAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE VERY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WEST, IT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A
COLD AIR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE'S STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SQUEAKS INTO FAR EASTERN
NM OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS SCENARIO APPEARS INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO CHRISTMAS, THERE IS A CHANCE (~30%) THAT
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION, THE
PNA SHOWS SIGNS OF GOING NEGATIVE OR AT LEAST NEUTRAL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE MONTH. THIS AT LEAST PROVIDES SOME HOPE THAT THE REGION
COULD GET SOME SNOW IN THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH PATCHY
CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS AT KSAF PEAKING NEAR 25KT MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, ALTHOUGH DRY AND UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST. A MORE NOTABLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. STRONGER WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY WILL HELP LIFT VENT RATES OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY FOR SOME
AREAS, BUT VENT RATES WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 17 49 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 10 50 12 52 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 51 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 9 56 11 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 18 57 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 11 56 12 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 17 60 19 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 54 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 22 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 15 64 17 65 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 66 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 13 46 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 49 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 54 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 47 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 14 43 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 4 47 9 47 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 8 49 10 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 21 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 18 53 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 25 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 20 52 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 54 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 54 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 55 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 24 55 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 56 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 55 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 20 55 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 26 53 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 54 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 57 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 51 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 53 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 53 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 55 16 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 24 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 23 48 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 18 50 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 16 53 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 27 51 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 50 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 57 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 57 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 55 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 57 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 30 58 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 59 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 31 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 36 60 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 36 60 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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