542
FXUS65 KABQ 161128 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
428 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
- A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- BREEZY WINDS IN THE EAST WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD. A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OVERALL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION, HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AFTER COLD
MORNING LOWS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, A QUIET DAY WITH LESS WIND. SOME PASSING CIRRUS MAY
DISRUPT THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ACROSS EASTERN NM. IN FACT, ALL AREAS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO SHOULD AID IN A FEW
BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN NM. BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 MPH ISN'T MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT IN NM!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO PREFER WARM AND DRY WEATHER, YOU'RE IN LUCK!
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE CHIONOPHILES OUT THERE, AS UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THERE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY, AS A TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PUSH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE, WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
500 MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 582 DM AND 585 DM OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. ACCORDING TO LOCAL SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY, THESE HEIGHTS WOULD LIE WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (ANY OBSERVED HEIGHTS ABOVE 583 DM ON THURSDAY,
DECEMBER 21, WOULD BREAK A RECORD). AS A RESULT OF THESE ANOMALOUS
HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE. A BRIEF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO HIGH, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS ABOUT 30% OF MEMBERS HINTING AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING INTO NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES FOR TROUGHING LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND
CHRISTMAS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSING
CIRRUS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
AT KSAF THIS MORNING DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS POOR VENTILATION. A
FEW AREAS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE ENOUGH
WIND ON TUESDAY FOR VENT RATES TO BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY
FOR 1-3 HOURS, AND SIMILARLY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, BUT
POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE OTHERWISE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, DESPITE PERIODIC BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
RESULT. OVERALL, A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 14 53 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 21 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 13 57 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 22 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 58 13 58 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 20 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 23 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 64 17 65 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 28 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 31 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 55 27 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 25 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 20 43 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 15 46 3 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 14 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 56 25 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 21 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 27 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 23 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 30 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 28 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 24 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 26 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 57 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 20 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 24 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 19 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 28 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 28 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 29 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 26 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 16 58 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 29 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 28 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 35 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 28 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 52 20 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 53 18 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 27 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 33 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 50 27 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 29 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 28 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 30 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 27 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 27 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 29 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 61 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 62 33 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34
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