062
FXUS65 KABQ 162158
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAUSING DRY
WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME READINGS CLOSER TO 30-YEAR AVERAGES IN
WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND OVER EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR WEST WINDS
GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
OTHER THAN SOME TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS, THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY REPETITIVE
AND DRY. LAST NIGHT’S WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SET TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, BUT READINGS ARE STILL
MANAGING TO ECLIPSE NORMALCY IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH AN
UPWARD RESPONSE IN 700 MB WINDS EXPECTED OVER NM THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAK AND RIDGE
LOCATIONS FROM RADIATING AS EFFECTIVELY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PERIODIC
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE. A SPEED MAX OF 35 TO 45 KT AT
700 MB WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NM INTO TUESDAY
WHILE A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS, MOSTLY OVER THE USUAL SUSPECTS FROM THE SANDIAS TO
CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI. A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE IN STORE FOR THESE AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS
DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ENSUE. WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN
RELAX INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WITH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES ACTUALLY BEING THE
MOST LIKELY TO NOTICE ANY APPRECIABLE 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO LEE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME READINGS NEAR THE AVERAGES
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (VFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS WITH JUST
HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER BREEZES
THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY (GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEING COMMON).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH) WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN INTO SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THESE
DAYS, THE OVERALL MIXING AND SMOKE DISPERSION RATES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW, CONTINUING TO POSE LIMITATIONS TO PRESCRIBED BURNING
INTERESTS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS AS WEAK FRONTS PERIODICALLY
INVADE NM WITH THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IMPACTING THE EASTERN ZONES.
LOW WINTERTIME DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO VERY LOW
WITH DAYTIME MINIMUMS OFTEN DROPPING BELOW 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 50 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 12 52 12 52 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 21 54 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 57 13 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 15 54 16 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 58 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 17 59 18 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 60 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 21 60 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 16 64 19 66 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 67 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 16 48 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 50 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 29 53 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 50 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 19 44 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 47 0 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 16 51 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 27 56 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 21 56 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 51 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 54 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 54 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 56 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 57 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 59 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 26 57 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 57 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 57 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 20 58 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 55 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 56 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 27 61 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 53 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 53 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 55 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 58 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 53 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 27 57 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 57 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 61 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 59 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 54 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 20 57 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 56 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 59 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 63 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 58 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 28 66 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 27 64 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 65 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 64 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 28 66 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 66 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 29 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 70 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 32 69 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
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