914
FXUS65 KABQ 170831
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, SANS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NM. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ROLLS
ON TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD AND SOUTH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DECENT DAYTIME MIXING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL TAP INTO AND
MOSTLY MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER 30 TO 40 KT 700 MB WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR FROM CLINES CORNERS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. SOME GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ACROSS EASTERN NM
WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GET BRIEFLY GUSTY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL BRING VERY NOTICEABLE COOLING TO HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR AVERAGE. LITTLE COOLING
OCCURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID DECEMBER. IT WILL ALSO BE A
SUNNIER DAY FOR THE REGION WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES, AT LEAST. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS ARE
PROJECTED, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WHERE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
MOST NIGHTS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND
DOWN ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.
HOWEVER, THIS ONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY. SO, DESPITE THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM
ON THURSDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY INCREASE. STARTING FRIDAY,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
FOR SUNDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH IT ATTM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, AND COULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTING IN SOME LLWS SHEAR ACROSS THE TUSAS AND
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TAPER OFF FOR THESE LOCALES AROUND
SUNSET WITH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
DRY AND VERY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK
AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS LATE THIS WEEK. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR DUE TO
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FAIR TO GOOD
VENTILATION ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10
TO 20 PERCENT TODAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.|
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 19 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 12 51 14 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 21 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 12 55 10 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 24 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 11 53 13 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 21 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 28 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 59 26 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 21 64 18 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 35 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 16 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 29 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 24 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 18 41 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 7 45 6 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 52 11 47 14 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 57 20 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 57 20 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 26 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 21 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 31 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 29 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 20 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 27 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 20 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 23 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 25 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 28 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 22 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 15 52 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 23 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 23 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 33 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 59 28 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 53 21 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 19 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 17 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 21 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 63 24 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 23 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 65 26 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 27 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 26 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 31 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 29 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 28 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 34 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 71 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 29 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71
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