280
FXUS65 KABQ 172325 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
425 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE JET STREAM, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND CURRENT, CONTINUES TO
FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON A PATH FAR TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.
THIS IS KEEPING ANY WINTER STORMS OR LARGE SCALE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY, DRY AND MOSTLY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO STAY
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER WITH OCCASIONAL
OSCILLATIONS AND FLUCTUATIONS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL INVADE NM. WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH, ONLY A WEAK SEEPAGE
OF NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS IS EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP/CANYON WIND EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AND
WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
WILL RUN 8 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S READINGS. SURFACE
WINDS WOULD BE VEERING SOUTHERLY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE EARLIER COLD
AIR ADVECTION. A WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD THEN STAY PUT
OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO COLD INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON A HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND YET ANOTHER DRY AND MILD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BACK INTO EASTERN AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL NM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD BE VERY SUBDUED, AND DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ACTUALLY EXCEED WEDNESDAY'S BY A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES (3 TO 10 F) WITH THE MILD COOLING EFFECTS LAGGING
UNTIL FRIDAY. AS FRIDAY ARRIVES, THE RIDGE BEHIND THE THURSDAY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWELLING AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE AXIS SET TO CROSS NM INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE WITH A DRY, SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE ZONAL FLOW STIFFENS.
DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WOULD SAG OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES WOULD DRAW APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE OR DYNAMICS TO NM, KEEPING THE DRY FORECAST GOING WITH
JUST AN UPTICK IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS (MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL SUSPECTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS).
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A DEEPER DIVE INTO ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
REVEALS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH VARIANCE, SO THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NM TONIGHT. A FEW
HOURS OF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NM WHILE OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT WINDS. THICK CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL GRADUALLY THIN
OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MORE
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
A VERY UNEVENTFUL STRETCH OF DRY AND VERY MILD WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW INSTANCES OF
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS. AFTER TODAY'S BREEZES SUBSIDE,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN BRIEFLY GUSTY THURSDAY WITH
MORE PROLONGED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE THE WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHENING THESE DAYS, POOR
MIXING AND SMOKE DISPERSION RATES WILL CONTINUE WITH IMPACTS TO
PRESCRIBED BURNING. OTHER SENSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL
COME IN THE FORM OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS AS WEAK FRONTS
PERIODICALLY INVADE NM WITH THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES IMPACTING THE
EASTERN ZONES. LOW WINTERTIME DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES
ALSO VERY LOW WITH DAYTIME MINIMUMS OFTEN DROPPING BELOW 15 TO 20
PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 49 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 12 51 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 20 49 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 55 15 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 17 54 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 52 17 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 18 59 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 28 51 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 22 53 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 64 20 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 15 47 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 47 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 49 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 46 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 14 42 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 4 45 10 52 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 14 47 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 20 52 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 20 52 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 48 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 50 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 53 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 54 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 22 55 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 26 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 20 54 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 26 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 22 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 51 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 52 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 50 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 50 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 18 51 18 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 22 47 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 24 52 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 26 52 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 18 44 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 47 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 50 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 49 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 25 50 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 23 46 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 26 54 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 27 52 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 26 52 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 54 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 29 55 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 28 54 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 57 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 55 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 30 53 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
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