033
FXUS65 KABQ 181125 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
425 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 425 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
QUIET, DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. WILL CHRISTMAS BRING SNOW TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT? IT
LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A FEW FLAKES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN NM!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN NM AND SEEPING
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. A GUST
OF 38 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT ROSWELL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING VERY NOTICEABLE COOLING TO HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR AVERAGE AND
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LITTLE COOLING OCCURS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE NEAR THE AZ BORDER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING KEEPING THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND WESTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NM TONIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND TYPICAL VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NM IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM BACK UP ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH ALL
AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID DECEMBER!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. APART FROM SOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THIS PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, THEREBY RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
OVER NM. WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM, BREEZY TO
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. DOWNSLOPING WILL
GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREE BOOST ACROSS EASTERN NM
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARING
RECORDS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN NM IN PLACES LIKE GALLUP
AND GLENWOOD.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE MEANS NO
SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BUT! COULD
FLAKES FLY IN THE AIR ON CHRISTMAS DAY? THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A
STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN NM WHICH COULD BRING A FEW FLAKES
TO THE AREA! ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
NM. LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S BACKDOOR FRONT BEFORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHEN A TOUCH FROM KCQC TO KTCC. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
ENTERS NORTHEAST NM AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
DRY AND VERY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK AS
THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS WEEK. VENTILATION WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY POOR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS EASTERN NM AT AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
TODAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 25
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS FOR MOST ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 19 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 15 56 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 23 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 14 58 13 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 26 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 15 58 15 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 23 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 52 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 55 28 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 21 69 18 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 33 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 20 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 32 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 30 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 25 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 24 48 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 13 50 2 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 47 17 55 12 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 29 60 21 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 21 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 30 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 22 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 34 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 24 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 29 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 19 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 20 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 27 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 21 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 30 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 29 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 26 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 28 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 17 58 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 27 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 26 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 33 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 28 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 46 24 59 19 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 23 58 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 28 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 34 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 45 28 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 28 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 32 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 30 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 33 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 32 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 27 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 30 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 32 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 31 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71
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