945
FXUS65 KABQ 190453 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
953 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 947 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
CALM, DRY, AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM ON FRIDAY
AND EAST CENTRAL NM ON SUNDAY, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT, LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME FOLKS IN NORTHERN NM MAY WAKE UP CHRISTMAS MORNING TO
SOME SNOW FLURRIES, AS LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE FOR
CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES IS INDUCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE-SIDE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER KS/OK, THIS HAS CREATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK, DRY BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH EXITING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL INTRUDE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. GUSTS SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT PASSED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT, BUT WOULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS WITH ITS
PASSAGE.
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY,
KEEPING THE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AROUND. THURSDAY'S MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING 20F ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE TEMPS WON'T BE
QUITE RECORD BREAKING, BUT WILL GET WITHIN 5F IN A FEW AREAS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY IN NORTHEAST NM AND
SUNDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NM (BOTH OWING TO SURFACE LOWS FORMING IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES), DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD OF NM BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SURGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WILL WORK TO FLATTEN OUR RIDGE, BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW
BACK TO THE STATE. THIS WILL ALSO AID TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY, A BRIEF AND DRY TROUGH WILL CLIP THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM. THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER BRIEFLY AND DROP
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE STATE. LOOKING INTO CHRISTMAS, ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A DEEPER, MORE MOIST TROUGH HITTING NORTHERN NM WHICH
COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NONE, SOME FOLKS
MAY WAKE UP TO SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CHRISTMAS MORNING. ALONG WITH
THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSING OVER NM ON
CHRISTMAS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
ONLY HIGH, CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS KICKING UP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS,
MAINLY NEAR KLVS, BUT THESE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY
WINDS COULD TURN A BIT GUSTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AT KSAF, AND
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPS WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND VENTILATION RELATIVELY POOR IN MOST
AREAS. A WINTER STORM WITH WIND AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY IMPACT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
VENTILATION FOR AT LEAST A DAY. CURRENTLY, WETTING PRECIPITATION
APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT THE MOUNTAINS MAY
RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 20 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 16 56 16 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 51 22 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 59 13 57 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 26 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 17 59 18 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 23 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 28 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 19 69 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 31 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 46 20 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 30 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 29 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 23 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 23 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 12 54 12 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 48 15 54 16 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 43 29 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 49 20 59 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 30 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 24 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 27 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 21 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 27 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 21 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 26 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 21 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 50 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 28 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 29 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 30 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 16 59 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 27 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 27 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 26 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 33 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 28 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 41 23 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 23 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 29 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 46 34 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 28 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 29 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 32 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 29 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 33 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 30 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 27 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 29 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 33 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 51 32 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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