093
FXUS65 KABQ 190754
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY PROVIDING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND STRONGER WINDS AREAWIDE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
DRY,VERY MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS
EVE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM ON
FRIDAY AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
A DEEPER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
STRONGER WEST WINDS AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SATURDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 578 TO 581 DAM ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE AROUND THE 90% FOR UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON THE
DATE AT KABQ. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERFECT DAY FOR THE WINTER
SOLSTICE WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE! THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE BECOMES ZONAL AS A RESULT.
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE I-50
CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NM. DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS COMPARED
TO SATURDAY, DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NM AND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE! A TRAILING AND PRETTY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THE HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE STATE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS EVE RESULTING IN A SPLENDID CHRISTMAS EVE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES.
A DEEPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR THIS STORM TRACK
SOUTH. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND
CLIPPING NORTHERN NM WITH SNOW SHOWERS WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE
SEES GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TAKING A DEEPER
DIVE INTO ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS SHOW AROUND 70 TO 80% OF THE
SOLUTIONS FAVORING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SCENARIO. ALL CLUSTERS SHOW
PRETTY MINIMAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND RATON PASS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
ONLY HIGH, CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS KICKING UP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS,
MAINLY NEAR KLVS, BUT THESE WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. NORTHERLY
WINDS COULD TURN A BIT GUSTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AT KSAF, AND
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, ALTHOUGH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL TREND UP SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
NM, AS STRONGER WESTERLIES INTRUDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE MORESO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, HUMIDITY IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD EITHER
DAY. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
SHOULD SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 19 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 56 13 56 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 54 19 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 58 14 60 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 25 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 16 58 15 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 22 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 58 26 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 19 64 20 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 31 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 52 18 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 30 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 58 25 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 19 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 17 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 3 49 5 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 55 12 51 12 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 59 22 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 21 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 28 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 23 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 26 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 26 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 29 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 29 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 29 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 25 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 17 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 25 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 24 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 31 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 30 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 23 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 59 18 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 59 17 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 27 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 24 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 24 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 26 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 25 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 28 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 68 29 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52
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