424
FXUS65 KABQ 192058
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
158 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY PROVIDING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND STRONGER WINDS AREAWIDE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
DRY AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, OUTSIDE OF
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST NM ON FRIDAY AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE CALM AND STAGNANT AIR, MODERATE TO
UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL
NM. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BRINGING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AND STRONGER WINDS
STATEWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS, LIGHT WINDS, AND PARTY
CLOUDY SKIES AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, AN
UNDESIRABLE SIDE EFFECT OF THIS OTHERWISE PLEASANT WINTER WEATHER
IS THE POOR VENTILATION WHICH HAS CREATED MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM TODAY. WITH THE LACK OF MIXING AND
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER, POLLUTANTS WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL WE HAVE A
STORM SYSTEM COME ALONG AND CLEAR OUT THIS AIRMASS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
RIDGING WILL PERSIST IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING A STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. ONLY UNTIL WE GET TO SUNDAY DO WE
BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE. THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. THIS ALLOWS ZONAL FLOW TO
RETURN OVER NM FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 700MB WINDS, WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM, THOUGH NOTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS, CAUSING HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (ABOUT 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE). ZONAL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE A DRY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES MONDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM, OWING TO SOME
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
INITIAL EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE.
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL GRACE THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS RIGHT
THROUGH NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BRINGING MODEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
ITS PASSING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS A BROADER,
OPEN TROUGH, WHICH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING FAVORS. WITH THAT,
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO NONE, BUT FOLKS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME FALLING
SNOWFLAKES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER, PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT,
IMPACT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH IS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF NM. AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME
RIGHT ACROSS THE STATE, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP ENHANCE
SURFACE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
NM. OVERALL, MINIMAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CHRISTMAS DAY
SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS
RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD AND POOR MIXING KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHALLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MIXING
COULD BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE FAIR TO GOOD FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY AREAWIDE ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE BASE OF A THROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH ITS
PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 55 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 15 58 16 58 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 21 55 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 60 12 60 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 58 16 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 25 62 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 31 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 28 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 18 65 18 68 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 30 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 19 53 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 51 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 25 55 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 51 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 50 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 14 52 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 23 59 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 20 56 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 53 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 57 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 21 57 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 26 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 20 57 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 20 56 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 55 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 60 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 54 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 54 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 27 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 58 19 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 56 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 31 57 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 52 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 21 54 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 56 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 53 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 28 60 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 58 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 26 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 25 57 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 59 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 59 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 61 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16
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