332
FXUS65 KABQ 201734 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1034 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY PROVIDING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND STRONGER WINDS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY, VERY MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS
EVE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
TODAY AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. A
DEEPER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND STRONGER WEST
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES OF 40 DEGREES OR MORE WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE BECOMES ZONAL AS A
RESULT. STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LEE LOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH 50S TO AROUND 60
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A TRAILING AND PRETTY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THE HIGHER MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDIER DAY FOR MANY AND
A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A FEW FLURRIES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS EVE AHEAD OF A DEEPER
PACIFIC TROUGH PRODUCING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETUP ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY FOR LAST MINUTE CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH
REMAINING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND NM/CO BORDER CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH NO BACKDOOR FRONT TO ENHANCE LIFT WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS AREA WITH AMOUNTS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE BIGGER HAZARD WITH THIS STORM WILL BE
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND HIGHLANDS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
ACROSS N-S ORIENTED HIGHWAYS AND ROADWAYS. THESE DOWNSLOPE WEST
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE RGV AND EASTERN NM. THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON BOXING DAY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOME BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO A LEE-SIDE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING, THEN TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DOMINATED WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MIXED BAG OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS,
IMPROVED VENTILATION AND A ROUND OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN NM, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
RATON PASS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 22 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 56 15 57 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 23 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 14 60 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 24 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 58 16 60 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 23 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 32 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 27 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 19 66 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 51 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 55 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 19 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 14 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 4 52 10 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 52 12 55 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 57 26 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 22 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 24 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 30 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 25 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 29 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 22 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 28 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 22 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 22 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 29 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 30 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 19 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 21 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 20 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 27 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 28 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 27 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 29 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 27 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 31 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 29 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 27 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 29 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 59 36 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 35 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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