553
FXUS65 KABQ 202134
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
234 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A WEAK STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND STRONGER WINDS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND BREEZY WEST WINDS. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND COOL WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY ARRIVE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
A LEE-SIDE LOW CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL CO HAS
RESULTED IN SOME BREEZY TO EVEN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND
TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS IN THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE
QUITE WEAK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL IN AREAS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, KEEPING MIXING HEIGHTS LOW AND ONCE AGAIN
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO POOR AIR QUALITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THESE VALLEY INVERSIONS TO
INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE
TYPICAL LOW-LYING SPOTS. TOMORROW'S WEATHER WILL BE ALMOST THE SAME
AS TODAY'S EXCEPT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND WARM
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS BREEZY IN THE EAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TOO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER NM SUNDAY WILL ASSIST
STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR-RECORD HIGHS FOR EASTERN
NM. WIDESPREAD 60S AND LOWER 70S ARE LIKELY WITH WESTERLY BREEZES
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST BY
LATE DAY MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF WARMING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THERE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING THEN ARRIVES MONDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL TREND ABOUT 5F COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. A 110KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN THIS TROUGH UPON EXITING NORTHEAST NM MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
INTO EASTERN NM WITH BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING
TO DEVELOP PRECIP.
A STRONGER CLOSED LOW WILL THEN MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH MUCH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO ~6,000' CHRISTMAS DAY THEN
BELOW 5,000' CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE H5 LOW. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS A QUICK-HITTER WITH PRIMARILY MINOR IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN EITHER WAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO A LEE-SIDE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS
WILL DROP THIS EVENING, THEN TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DOMINATED WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
EASTERN AREAS, VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR IN MOST AREAS UNTIL NEXT
WEDNESDAY WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. STRONGER WEST WINDS AND
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 54 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 59 16 57 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 19 58 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 60 14 60 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 60 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 60 16 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 62 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 69 19 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 69 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 19 55 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 53 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 26 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 23 54 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 11 49 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 1 54 5 52 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 11 56 15 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 17 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 59 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 58 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 58 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 27 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 59 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 19 60 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 27 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 20 60 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 26 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 59 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 33 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 29 62 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 57 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 57 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 15 60 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 59 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 55 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 21 57 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 17 58 19 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 58 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 34 62 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 59 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 63 26 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 61 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 26 60 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 65 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 26 64 26 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 65 26 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 31 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 34 65 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 32 66 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16
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