982
FXUS65 KABQ 211116 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
416 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 308 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A WEAK STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS AND STRONGER WEST WINDS
MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND SOME STRAY SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY MORNING. A DEEPER STORM MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS
AND STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEXT FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON SUNDAY AND GIVE WAY TO
THE WESTERLIES, BRINING AFTERNOON BREEZES TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES SHY OF
DAILY RECORD VALUES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
A RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THE HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDIER DAY FOR MANY. THIS CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY
COMPARED TO SUNDAY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. OTHER
AREAS OF THE STATE WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY,
BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS FROM TOP DOWN
MOISTENING. A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE ON THE TROUGH
COULD HELP AMPLIFY THE TROUGH A LITTLE TUESDAY MORNING AS IT EXITS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. PUT SOME 8 TO 12% POPS DURING
THIS TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
STATE DURING THE 2ND HALF OF CHRISTMAS EVE AND EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
AND GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOK TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW AS IT
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING
TRACKING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM DURING THE 2ND HALF OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, AN AREA OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NM BEGINNING MID TO LATE CHRISTMAS
MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND REACHING NORTHEAST NM CHRISTMAS EVENING AND
CHRISTMAS NIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW,
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM. HOWEVER, SOME
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER LOW DYNAMICS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW END ADVISORY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE RATON PASS ZONE CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EARLY
CHRISTMAS NIGHT, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOW, BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS DUE TO
SOME MIXING OF THE HIGHER 700 MB FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE UPPER
LOW EXITS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BOXING DAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDING OVER NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO LATE DECEMBER AVERAGES IN THE
WAKE OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY STORM. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THIS ONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM AND HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND THE
WESTERLIES WILL INTRUDE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VENT
RATES WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING UP INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VENTILATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. VENTILATION WILL DIP BACK DOWN AND BE POOR MOST AREAS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS STILL
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH IMPROVED
VENTILATION, STRONGER WINDS, COLDER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY IMPACT
THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 58 16 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 55 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 13 60 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 22 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 60 14 61 21 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 23 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 32 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 59 26 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 19 65 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 20 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 33 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 57 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 21 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 17 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 7 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 54 13 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 57 27 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 58 23 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 56 31 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 25 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 34 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 26 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 29 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 60 22 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 22 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 60 27 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 22 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 58 32 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 30 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 31 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 32 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 30 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 20 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 29 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 29 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 35 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 59 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 58 22 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 59 20 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 28 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 59 27 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 28 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 32 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 29 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 31 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 29 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 28 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 32 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 65 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 36 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11
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