017
FXUS65 KABQ 220527 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1027 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A WEAK WINTER STORM ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RATON PASS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AND MOST OF THE STATE
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES LATE WEEK, BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
ANOTHER WEAK WINTER STORM COULD BRING MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE! IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE IT THOUGH AS MANY AREAS
HAVE WARMED 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW HUMIDITY, VERY LIGHT
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
SO A FEW WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE THICKER CIRRUS INVADING FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPTICK IN
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
HELP WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE NEAR-RECORD
HIGH TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS. WESTERN NM WILL SEE COOLER
MAX TEMPS GIVEN THICKER HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN OVER STRONG MORNING
INVERSIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS EXIT TO
THE EAST SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE DOMINANT UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
STARTING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. FIRST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD SQUEAK OUT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT
IT WILL BE SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THEN, A LONGWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER ON TUESDAY AS
THE FIRST WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW. THIS STORM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT THAN PREVIOUS TROUGHS DUE TO ITS PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, THE
INGREDIENTS JUST AREN'T THERE FOR A BIG WINTER STORM SO LOWER
ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND THEREFORE
MINIMAL IMPACTS. DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL INDUCE FRONTOLYSIS AS THE
STORM MOVES INTO EASTERN NM, BUT UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW COULD CREATE SOME SLICK TRAVEL AT RATON PASS ON THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, WINDS WILL
INCREASE, PIRATICALLY IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, BUT TEMPS WILL STILL HOVER NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES,
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE WEEK AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ON
FRIDAY, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MINIMAL. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE EPS GENERALLY FAVORS
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, KEEPING THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO WHEREAS THE
GEFS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT COULD WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
NO CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS
AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS. NORTHERLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
DRAINAGE WINDS AT KSAF TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, WHERE PEAK
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25KTS BEGIN REACHING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 60 SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. INCREASING BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM PAST 21Z TO 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUESDAY
WITH WEAK MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. LOCALIZED BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EACH DAY WITH GUSTS
MAINLY BELOW 25 MPH. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSING THRU NORTHERN NM
MONDAY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT NORTHERN NM CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
SLIDE THRU NORTHERN NM ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 53 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 15 56 21 53 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 21 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 11 58 23 58 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 58 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 15 62 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 25 62 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 63 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 62 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 18 69 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 70 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 20 54 22 49 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 55 34 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 60 33 55 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 54 26 49 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 15 52 18 43 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 53 19 47 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 14 56 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 62 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 61 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 56 34 53 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 57 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 59 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 59 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 61 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 61 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 17 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 58 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 56 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 58 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 59 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 61 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 56 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 29 59 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 30 61 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 23 65 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 63 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 65 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 69 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 65 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 69 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 70 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 68 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 69 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 25 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 73 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 37 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 37 73 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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