036
FXUS65 KABQ 161120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 412 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN NUISANCE CROSSWINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY WHICH MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (30-60%) MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHERN NM.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN NM THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR
QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE TODAY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE
MUCH WARMER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM MAY SEE GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM
MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO ALL OF EASTERN NM TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NM TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTHEAST NM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NM THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE
EASTERN NM PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A BANK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
CAN BE SEEN BLANKETING MUCH OF THIS AREA PER LATEST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD DAWN, HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS AND CAM’S ARE DEPICTING SOME BREAKING UP OF THE STRATUS
TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER WITH MORE SOLID LOW STRATUS COVERAGE TOWARD
COLFAX, MORA, SAN MIGUEL, GUADALUPE, AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
STILL, SOME BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS, BUT A FEW FLEETING OPENINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 8 TO 10 AM
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD EROSION OCCURS LATER IN THE MORNING ONCE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
TURN MORE ZONAL INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND AT THE SURFACE A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHEASTERN NM. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INDUCE MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL TO THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL IN MOST LOCALES WITH A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING GETTING UNDERWAY DESPITE CIRRUS CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP STREAMING EASTWARD INTO NM TONIGHT WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOING SOME STRENGTHENING. THE FLOW IS MODELED
TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE,
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS JUST
DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. A LOOK AT CROSS SECTIONS
DOES NOT REVEAL HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT,
BUT PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS (MOSTLY TO 20 TO 30 MPH) SEEM
INEVITABLE ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO SOME OF
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THEREFORE NOT
FULLY DECOUPLE, EXCEPT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS (SAN JUAN AND RIO
GRANDE) AND A FEW OTHER LOWLAND AREAS, SO THIS WILL KEEP TONIGHT’S
TEMPERATURES MILDER, AS WILL THE OVERHEAD CIRRUS. ON MONDAY, THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS RELATIVELY STRONG AT 25 TO 45 KT AT 700 MB, AND THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE TO HARDING COUNTY AND VICINITY
WITH THE NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT ALREADY ENTERING UNION COUNTY LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN ALL
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN IN UNION COUNTY PRIOR TO THE FRONT, AND
THE WARMER, DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST NM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NM THRU FRIDAY MORNING AS A ~1050MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SASKATCHEWAN DRIFTS SOUTH THRU THE GREAT PLAINS TO NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE, A MOIST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS (30-60%) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
40. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TROUGH ORIENTATION
WHICH BRINGS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER WAVE THRU NORTHERN NM AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. LREF CLUSTERS AND
NBM50TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGE 1-3" FOR THE NORTHERN
MTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY SHOW 3-6" FOR THE SAME AREA SO TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED TO ASSESS CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. MAX
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NM
TUESDAY WILL BE 30 TO 40F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SHIFT WEST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE SNOWFALL WOULD BE A VERY WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS,
HOWEVER THE FRIGID TEMPS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE
THE GREATER IMPACT. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 0 AND 10F WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR -10F
ALONG THE TX BORDER. THE NBM PROBABILITY FOR MINT <10F IS ALREADY
ABOVE 80% OVER A LARGE AREA OF EASTERN NM. AREAS AROUND UNION
COUNTY EVEN HAVE PROBABILITIES FOR MINT <0F CLOSE TO 50%. A FEW
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COUNTIES IN EASTERN NM.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED OVER EASTERN NM WILL
ATTEMPT TO SURGE FARTHER WEST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
EVOLVES. THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSES IS HINTING AT A WEAKER/FASTER
TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES EASTWARD FRIDAY. THE
NBM MINT STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE VERY LARGE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WHICH IS A STRONG INDICATION OF
GREATER SPREAD IN THE TEMPS AMONGST FORECAST MODELS. NONETHELESS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EASTERN NM WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS AND
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, WESTERN NM IS LIKELY
TO SEE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS EACH DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE STRATUS AND LOW CEILINGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A KRTN TO
KLVS TO KSXU LINE WITH ADDITIONAL BATCHES NORTHWEST OF KROW.
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWER (IFR) LESS THAN 1000 FT AT KLVS. THESE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE POST DAWN HOURS AS BREEZES
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NOON LOCAL TIME. HIGH,
FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP STREAMING IN OVERHEAD TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN DRIER TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. A COLDER AND CLOUDY
START IN MUCH OF EASTERN NM THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN ZONES WILL
ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY, RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE EASTERN AREAS STAY BELOW. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SPOTTY OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DUE TO THE CONJUNCTION OF LOW HUMIDITY (WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF 12 TO 17 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON). WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
STRONGEST (GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH) OVER HIGHLAND AREAS OF BOTH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, BUT FOR NOW NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS PLANNED
DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CRITICAL HUMIDITY, AS WELL AS SOME
AMBIGUITY WITH REGARD TO THE LATE WINTER STATUS OF THE HEAVIER
FUELS. A QUICK OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THEN ARRIVES OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AND HIGHLAND ZONES WITH THE TUESDAY
DISTURBANCE, BUT FUEL MOISTURE GAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AND NOT VERY
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
INVADES. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL STAY MOSTLY
UNAFFECTED BY THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO DEFINITIVE LARGE SCALE WEATHER STORM
SYSTEMS, JUST LOW POTENTIAL FOR QUICK-MOVING AND MOSTLY MOISTURE-
STARVED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN ZONES WILL BE
MODERATING CLOSER TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS BY SATURDAY, AND EVEN
CLIMBING ABOVE NEXT SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 45 15 51 18 / 0 5 10 20
CUBA............................ 48 24 57 26 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 54 20 60 25 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 50 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 55 23 62 26 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 55 26 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 35 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 22 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 29 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 18 45 17 / 0 5 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 32 55 30 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 51 28 56 27 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 26 50 25 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 41 23 43 20 / 0 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 24 47 20 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 48 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 53 27 57 23 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 54 24 63 28 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 48 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 34 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 28 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 32 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 29 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 30 66 35 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 27 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 30 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 27 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 32 63 33 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 33 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 32 58 30 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 49 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 23 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 28 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 34 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 27 58 16 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 47 25 63 20 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 50 26 65 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 30 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 28 60 12 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 29 64 18 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 32 70 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 30 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 31 69 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 28 67 24 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 50 27 67 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 26 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 29 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 32 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 34 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...52
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