629
FXUS65 KABQ 170533 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1033 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN NUISANCE CROSSWINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BRING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS,
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOCATED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NM TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NM, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NM WERE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY, WITH A
LITTLE PATCH AROUND CLAYTON HANGING ON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THIS AREA, BUT OTHERS
AREAS ARE ALREADY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. AS FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE STATE. H7 WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING OVER AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR 45KT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BUFFET THE MOUNTAIN TOPS,
BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE INDICATION THAT MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL
CRASH TO THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW JUST TO
THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND THUS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, EVEN WESTERN NM
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS TEMPS REBOUND
AFTER YESTERDAY'S TROUGH PASSAGE COMBINED WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NM ON MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
SIDE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 999-1000MB. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RAMP UP BY LATE MORNING AREAWIDE, BUT DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO SOAR TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, EXCEPT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE AND SAN JUAN VALLEYS WHERE SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS,
THIS WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE NM MONDAY EVENING BEFORE PRESSING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL ARRIVE. TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING, AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY, BUT THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE
THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN SHOWING LESS QPF WHILE THE 12Z NAM
HAS ALMOST NO QPF. WE'RE EXPECTING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AT BEST
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MEANWHILE, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING SLOW SOUTHWEST
PROGRESS ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, WITH
FRIGID AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE NOTABLE AT LOCALES SUCH AS ROSWELL, WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO THE FROPA AFTER MAX HEATING.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A NUMBER OF EASTERN NM
LOCALES ARE FORECAST TO SET NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR EXAMPLE, CLAYTON IS FORECAST TO HIT A LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 2 DEGREES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE DAILY
RECORD BY 1 DEGREE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT
GRADUALLY MODIFY RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING TREND THU/FRI.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WESTERN NM WILL
EXPERIENCE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK. AN UPSTREAM
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WARMING IS FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET MONDAY, WHEN THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO
THIN OUT AND BREAK UP. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
TONIGHT, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NM, RESULTING
IN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO THE LEE (EAST) OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE FLOW ALOFT
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BOTH STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, CAUSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 KT TO SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH TERRAIN,
AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
RIO GRANDE AND SAN JUAN VALLEYS. WITH RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR 15% FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40, AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXIST BETWEEN 1300 AND 1600 LOCAL. ON TUESDAY, A CROSSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS
NORTHEAST NM. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NM, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY. IN
FACT, MUCH OF EASTERN NM WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ACROSS EASTERN NM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 56 30 51 / 0 0 20 20
DULCE........................... 17 50 19 46 / 5 10 30 40
CUBA............................ 25 55 27 45 / 0 0 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 21 60 28 52 / 0 0 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 27 56 30 50 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 21 63 27 53 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 27 61 28 52 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 35 64 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 29 60 31 52 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 22 63 22 60 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 28 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 18 46 21 40 / 0 10 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 54 34 46 / 0 0 10 30
PECOS........................... 28 53 31 44 / 0 0 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 49 28 39 / 0 5 10 40
RED RIVER....................... 23 41 23 30 / 0 5 20 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 46 19 36 / 0 0 20 40
TAOS............................ 22 53 24 44 / 0 5 10 30
MORA............................ 28 54 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 25 61 28 52 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 29 56 32 48 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 59 30 52 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 62 38 55 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 64 37 58 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 66 34 61 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 64 36 58 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 29 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 30 64 36 58 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 28 66 32 62 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 30 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 66 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 31 61 36 54 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 64 36 58 / 0 0 0 20
SOCORRO......................... 34 70 36 65 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 56 34 49 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 33 58 36 51 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 31 58 33 51 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 62 29 52 / 0 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 57 30 47 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 32 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 59 32 53 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 62 38 58 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 35 60 38 52 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 26 59 14 27 / 0 0 0 30
RATON........................... 25 62 20 35 / 0 0 0 30
SPRINGER........................ 25 63 21 39 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 61 25 44 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 27 60 12 21 / 0 0 0 30
ROY............................. 29 63 19 30 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 32 69 24 35 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 68 26 46 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 69 20 32 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 28 66 25 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 26 67 24 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 69 26 46 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 29 73 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 70 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 35 68 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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