367
FXUS65 KABQ 170939
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
239 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY,
RESULTING IN NUISANCE CROSSWINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY
LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY WILL BE WARMER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT WITH BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER
FOR EASTERN NM. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN TUESDAY WITH 1 TO 2" POSSIBLE. THE BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER
EASTERN NM WILL THEN MOVE WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO MAY IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE TX BORDER EACH NIGHT. MEANWHILE, WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID FEBRUARY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 12
DEGREES IN MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM LOCATIONS BEFORE A STARK AND
JARRING CHANGE COMES TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STIFF ZONAL FLOW
TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL MODELED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 45 KT AT
700 MB WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OVERLAYING AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL LEAD TO
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, ENABLING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TOWARD
THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH COMMON IN OTHER
REMAINING HIGHLAND ZONES. ALSO OF NOTE, THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW
WILL RELOCATE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA OF EASTERN SAN
MIGUEL/GUADALUPE/QUAY. THIS FARTHER SOUTH POSITION WILL ALLOW THE
NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT TO BE DRAWN INTO UNION, HARDING, AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN QUAY COUNTY LATE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL STILL SURGE ABOVE YESTERDAY’S READINGS,
REACHING THE 60’S BEFORE ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION CAN ENSUE.
TONIGHT, THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ADVANCE FARTHER INTO NORTHEASTERN
AND EAST CENTRAL NM AS A STOUT SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN (1054MB PER THE GFS) DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
CONUS. THESE NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NM ZONES WILL OBSERVE
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20’S TONIGHT WITH AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE FRONT STAYING RELATIVELY MILDER AND UNAFFECTED IN THE
20’S AND 30’S. THIS WILL BE A THEME THAT WILL CARRY ON INTO TUESDAY
WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES STAYING CLOSER TO NORMAL WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN ZONES DROP MORE (DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 20 TO
30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE). A KINK IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM ON TUESDAY, DRAGGING SOME FAINT MOISTURE AND
BRIEF-LIVED ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TRUE TO FORM, THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
WOULD FARE THE BEST WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
(LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 10,000FT) EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
DURING THE DAY WITH SURROUNDING NORTHERN ZONES LUCKY TO RECEIVE A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST 24HRS. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NM WILL SURGE WESTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFR PROFILES NEAR TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS SHOW
THE COLD AIR DEEPENING TO BETWEEN 2KFT AND 3KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
WITH A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS,
PATCHY FREEZING FOG, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NM AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS BUFR
PROFILES. THE NBM MINT STANDARD DEVIATION HAS DECREASED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL NOT MOVE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE RISING TO THE
WEST OF NM AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DRAGGING THE COLDER
AIRMASS MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN.
BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST OVER NM THRU LATE
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OVER EASTERN NM
GIVEN THE LIMITED SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 25-30F BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PLAINS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN NM. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NM TO BUILD
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND SEEP INTO THE RGV FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MINT STANDARD DEVIATION IS TRENDING LOWER WITH EACH
RUN OF THE NBM ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS FORECAST HAS TRENDED MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO
THE NBM10TH PERCENTILE FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL NM. THE 00Z LREF
GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS ALSO TRENDED THE COLD AIRMASS WESTWARD TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN VERY COLD
OVER EASTERN NM WITH BREEZIER SOUTHEAST WINDS MAKING WIND CHILLS
EVEN COLDER.
THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGE ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS TO DELAY THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NM FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAY GIVE THE COLDER AIRMASS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TRENDED COLDER THAN RECENT FORECASTS ALONG THIS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WITH LIGHT GAP WINDS NOW SHOWING UP IN THE NBM WIND FIELD. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MTS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL, THE MESSAGE REMAINS THAT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM THIS
WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS ALONG THE
TX BORDER AND POTENTIALLY FARTHER WEST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD
AIR BUILDS INTO EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET MONDAY, WHEN THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO
THIN OUT AND BREAK UP. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
TONIGHT, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NM, RESULTING
IN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO THE LEE (EAST) OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE FLOW ALOFT
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BOTH STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, CAUSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 KT TO SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH TERRAIN,
AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
A DRY, WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD TODAY
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AND
MILLS CANYON VICINITY WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
FOUND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER HIGHLAND AREAS LIKE THOSE IN WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NM WILL OBSERVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY (WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 12
TO 17 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON) AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
SPOTTY OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER MANY OF THESE GUSTY
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A
SHORT-LIVED OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
NM ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. WITH JUST A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THERE AND MUCH LESS (A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT) IN REMAINING NORTHERN
ZONES, FUELS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT SEE MUCH MOISTURE RELIEF
TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST) WILL
IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
NUDGE UPWARD SLIGHTLY (MINIMUM READINGS OF GENERALLY 20-25 PERCENT)
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WHILE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM WILL STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES AND STAYS PUT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY IN EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES, DRAGGING COOLER
AIR INTO NM ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MODELED TO PRODUCE MINIMAL, IF ANY, MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCE BEING MOSTLY MOISTURE-STARVED IN AN ALREADY DRY WINTER
STRETCH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 30 51 21 / 0 20 20 0
DULCE........................... 50 21 47 4 / 10 40 40 0
CUBA............................ 56 27 47 15 / 0 10 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 26 53 11 / 0 5 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 27 49 20 / 0 0 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 26 53 12 / 0 0 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 28 52 20 / 0 0 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 34 56 27 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 61 30 52 23 / 0 0 5 0
RESERVE......................... 64 23 61 16 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 67 29 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 22 40 7 / 10 30 40 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 34 47 24 / 0 10 30 0
PECOS........................... 54 29 46 20 / 0 5 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 28 41 17 / 5 20 40 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 23 31 12 / 5 20 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 20 37 6 / 0 20 50 0
TAOS............................ 53 24 45 12 / 0 20 30 0
MORA............................ 56 24 43 14 / 0 10 30 0
ESPANOLA........................ 62 28 53 17 / 0 10 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 56 32 51 23 / 0 10 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 30 55 21 / 0 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 38 57 30 / 0 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 37 59 28 / 0 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 32 61 24 / 0 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 35 59 26 / 0 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 69 33 64 20 / 0 0 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 64 35 58 25 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 32 62 20 / 0 0 10 0
CORRALES........................ 65 34 59 26 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 33 62 22 / 0 0 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 36 56 26 / 0 5 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 36 58 26 / 0 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 36 65 27 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 34 50 25 / 0 5 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 36 52 26 / 0 5 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 34 51 20 / 0 0 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 28 54 13 / 0 0 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 29 48 15 / 0 0 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 34 54 20 / 0 0 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 32 54 20 / 0 0 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 38 58 27 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 36 52 25 / 0 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 57 17 31 6 / 0 5 20 0
RATON........................... 61 19 37 8 / 0 10 30 0
SPRINGER........................ 63 20 41 7 / 0 5 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 25 44 11 / 0 5 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 60 13 22 0 / 0 10 10 0
ROY............................. 64 18 31 6 / 0 0 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 24 34 8 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 25 40 11 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 21 30 5 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 25 31 9 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 67 25 33 8 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 26 41 10 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 37 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 36 60 19 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 68 39 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44
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