746
FXUS65 KABQ 172131
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND PERSIST
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY, WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY NEXT MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
AN EXTREME DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS ON DECK FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEST.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE 35 TO
45 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY WITH THE REST OF EASTERN NM AT LEAST 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY FROM A CLIPPING
DISTURBANCE. THE ARCTIC LIKE AIRMASS MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NM LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL BY AROUND 25 TO 35 DEGREES! THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THIS
TIME WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM NEAR TO AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT AS COLD ON FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. VERY MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY AREAWIDE
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD FOR SOME COME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
THE TEMPORARY WARMUP IS UNDERWAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH,
LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 50 MPH AT KLVS. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THIS
EVENING, THOUGH WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL OVERNIGHT.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS POISED JUST NORTHEAST OF NM THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO NE NM THIS EVENING. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SHOCK
TO THE SYSTEM FOR FOLKS ACROSS EASTERN NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THESE FRONTS TEND TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN MODELS OFTEN INDICATE, SO HIGH TEMPS ARE
ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE - IF NOT BELOW - AND STILL
MAY BE TOO WARM IN PLACES. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AS WELL, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM AS WELL.
IN ADDITION, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN NM ON
TUESDAY. MODEST MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM
TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL REFOCUS OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATED A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO CLAYTON IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL (600-700MB)
FRONTOGENESIS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 10KFT.
MEANWHILE, UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST NM. AMOUNTS
IN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE QUICK-HITTING NATURE OF THE
BAND. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO WEST TEXAS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED AND EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED
AROUND CLAYTON. IN FACT, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF -1 AT CLAYTON TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DATE, BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 3 DEGREES FROM 1955. SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
BE CLOSE TO OR WILL BREAK RECORDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM AS WELL,
INCLUDING TUCUMCARI, CLOVIS AND PORTALES. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -15. AS
SUCH, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES ALONG THE
OK/TX BORDERS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM WITH 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AND 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN NM. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MID FEBRUARY! WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MAKE IT FEEL VASTLY DIFFERENT AND MORE SPRINGLIKE WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN 50S TO LOW 60S, RIGHT
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY. THE WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
WARMING UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE COLD MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT IT
WILL TAKE TIME. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THESE AIRMASSES SLOWLY
DEPARTING, WENT ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S. THIS IS STILL AROUND 20 TO
30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SOUTH OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO KICK OUT THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A LITTLE MORE INTO THE 40S. WESTERN NM COOLS
DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER DUE TO THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES TO THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS ON THE SLOWER END
WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN NM LATE FRIDAY.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROUGH
SCRAPING NORTHERN NM MID TO LATE DAY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS, A MAJORITY (~70%) OF THE CLUSTERS DEPICT THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MODEST MOISTURE WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.30 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NM RESULTING IN SOME
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE LOWER PROBABILITY GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT. THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. EASTERN NM FINALLY WARMS UP TO
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE TODAY THANKS TO THE
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. THE WARMUP INTENSIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG RIDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPANDS EAST OVER THE DESERT
SW. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 578 TO 585 DAM ACROSS THE STATE COME NEXT
MONDAY WHICH IS AT THE DAILY MAX FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM AND 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE RGV AND EASTERN NM WHICH
ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EVERYONE TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
SOME FOR LATE FEBRUARY!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
A VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM IS ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND
35KT WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND KLVS AND KCQC. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRESS INTO NE NM, RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT (07Z) ACROSS NE NM BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND WESTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. KTCC WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE LOW CIGS
AND MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT KLVS WILL BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
WARM, WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AND THESE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY CLIMBING OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WESTERN NM WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY THE
FRONT, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
INSTEAD, BOUTS OF BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALSO EXISTS
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCARCE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, THOUGH A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM COULD DROP A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN NM THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED MOST DAYS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 31 52 20 53 / 10 20 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 46 5 47 / 20 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 26 47 16 51 / 5 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 27 53 12 58 / 0 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 48 19 53 / 0 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 27 54 13 59 / 0 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 52 19 57 / 0 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 55 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 60 16 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 64 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 39 8 43 / 20 50 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 47 25 47 / 5 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 47 20 49 / 0 20 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 41 18 45 / 10 50 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 24 31 9 36 / 20 70 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 36 5 39 / 10 60 10 5
TAOS............................ 25 44 13 47 / 10 30 0 0
MORA............................ 24 43 14 48 / 5 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 31 53 18 55 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 48 22 50 / 5 30 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 51 19 52 / 5 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 55 30 55 / 0 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 37 58 28 58 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 59 23 60 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 36 58 26 58 / 0 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 33 62 22 61 / 0 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 36 57 25 59 / 0 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 32 60 20 60 / 0 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 34 58 25 60 / 0 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 61 22 60 / 0 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 38 53 26 55 / 0 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 57 26 58 / 0 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 63 29 64 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 49 24 51 / 0 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 51 26 52 / 0 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 49 20 54 / 0 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 53 12 56 / 0 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 45 16 45 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 52 21 54 / 0 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 51 21 54 / 0 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 58 27 58 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 35 51 24 46 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 15 32 2 28 / 0 40 10 0
RATON........................... 19 33 6 29 / 5 30 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 36 7 34 / 0 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 22 40 8 39 / 0 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 11 18 -1 20 / 10 30 10 0
ROY............................. 17 26 6 25 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 22 31 8 29 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 24 40 9 35 / 0 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 19 27 4 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 29 5 26 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 23 30 5 28 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 37 7 36 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 52 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 58 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 60 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR NMZ230-231-234>236.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page