918
FXUS65 KABQ 181032
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY INVADING EASTERN NM AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK
OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
A STARK CONTRAST IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP BETWEEN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND TO SOME EXTENT FRIDAY WHILE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THIS STRETCH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY, DRAGGING LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARES OF THE STATE. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH PEAKS
ABOVE 10,000 FEET RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES.
LOWLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL RECEIVE JUST A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT TODAY. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER SIMILAR WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN LINGER UNTIL THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY AROUND 20 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW MONDAY'S READINGS OVER FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SO SHALLOW IT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FROM RATON TO CLINES CORNERS TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE READINGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S
FROM FROM CLAYTON TO PORTALES.
MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE PASSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER
WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS TODAY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST, EXCEPT IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. AN INCH OR SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND CAPULIN AND DES MOINES. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING FOG FROM CLAYTON TO RATON,
LAS VEGAS, AND SOUTHWARD POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS NORTHEAST LINCOLN
COUNTY. THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, WHERE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY'S
READINGS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, CREATING
ANOTHER FRIGID START FOR THE EASTERN ZONES OF NM DESPITE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
STAY 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY 3 TO 8 DEGREES. JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AND SOME RIBBONS OF ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS WOULD STREAM
OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALREADY SHOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS UPSTREAM IN NV/UT/CO
WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING.
THIS AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS WILL EVOLVE INTO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN NM DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET (60-80 KT AT 300 MB) PRODUCING WEAK
BAROCLINICITY, MODEST DYNAMICS, AND FEEBLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WHICH WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT ZONES. THE
FALLING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR
AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY WHILE
EASTERN AREAS EXPERIENCE A SUBDUED WARMING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
STILL SHORT OF NORMALCY BY 5 TO 18 DEGREES.
WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY BY
10-14 DECAMETERS WITH LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHS REDEVELOPING EACH
DAY. CONSEQUENTIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PLAINS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING GETS UNDERWAY, AND ALL ZONES WILL OBSERVE DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE GAINS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHILE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PERSIST. A FEW RECORD HIGHS, MAINLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM,
WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY BE SET MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS TAPERED OFF THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A BIT MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THRU CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COINCIDENT
WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PROB30 INCLUDED AT KFMN AND KGUP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MEANWHILE A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
ADVANCING THRU NORTHEASTERN NM THIS HOUR, EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
SOUTH AND WEST THRU THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM TONIGHT. THIS IS
BRINGING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO TERMINALS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER UNION COUNTY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING,
KLVS AND KTCC. KLVS WILL BE AT THE EXPECTED WESTERN MOST LONGITUDE
THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOO. A SWITCH BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THERE, BUT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KROW, AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KTCC ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THRU THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS MOVING IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY UNTIL
THURSDAY ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, EXCEPT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK. A DISTURBANCE PASSING
EASTWARD OVER THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, BUT ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST IN
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT DIVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY WILL ALSO
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
DISTURBANCE CROSSING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 20 52 25 / 20 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 5 47 15 / 30 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 16 50 23 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 12 56 18 / 20 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 19 51 21 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 13 57 19 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 52 19 55 24 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 27 57 31 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 23 55 26 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 16 63 20 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 28 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 8 42 16 / 50 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 24 47 27 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 20 49 20 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 18 45 21 / 40 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 9 35 13 / 60 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 5 39 3 / 60 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 13 47 17 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 45 15 48 17 / 40 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 17 55 22 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 22 50 24 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 18 52 22 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 29 54 33 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 27 56 32 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 22 58 25 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 25 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 60 21 59 26 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 24 57 27 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 19 58 24 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 24 58 28 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 21 58 26 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 25 54 28 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 25 56 29 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 28 62 31 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 23 50 25 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 25 52 27 / 20 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 19 53 20 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 12 55 15 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 15 44 16 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 20 53 22 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 20 53 23 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 26 56 26 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 24 45 20 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 2 28 6 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 6 31 7 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 38 7 34 7 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 8 39 13 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 18 -3 19 6 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 6 24 8 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 31 8 31 12 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 9 35 14 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 4 27 12 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 29 5 28 11 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 30 5 30 10 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 7 37 13 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 20 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 18 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 20 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ230-231-234>237.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24
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