574
FXUS65 KABQ 181502 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
802 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 802 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS INVADED EASTERN NM AND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 802 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE, DID AN
UPDATE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS MUCH AS 50 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AND 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MID FEBRUARY! ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
GRAINS AS WELL ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
A STARK CONTRAST IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP BETWEEN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND TO SOME EXTENT FRIDAY WHILE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THIS STRETCH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY, DRAGGING LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARES OF THE STATE. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE A DUSTING TO A COUPLE
INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WITH ISOLATED HIGH PEAKS
ABOVE 10,000 FEET RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES.
LOWLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL RECEIVE JUST A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT TODAY. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER SIMILAR WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN LINGER UNTIL THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY AROUND 20 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW MONDAY'S READINGS OVER FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SO SHALLOW IT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, SO TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FROM RATON TO CLINES
CORNERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE READINGS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS TO 20S FROM FROM CLAYTON TO PORTALES. A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO DIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY'S READINGS.
MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE PASSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER
WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS TODAY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST, EXCEPT IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. AN INCH OR SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AROUND CAPULIN AND DES MOINES. THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAINLY
OVER NORTHEAST AREAS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY WILL RETREAT ONLY
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, CREATING
ANOTHER FRIGID START FOR THE EASTERN ZONES OF NM DESPITE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
STAY 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY 3 TO 8 DEGREES. JUST A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AND SOME RIBBONS OF ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS WOULD STREAM
OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALREADY SHOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS UPSTREAM IN NV/UT/CO
WHERE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING.
THIS AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS WILL EVOLVE INTO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN NM DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET (60-80 KT AT 300 MB) PRODUCING WEAK
BAROCLINICITY, MODEST DYNAMICS, AND FEEBLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WHICH WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT ZONES. THE
FALLING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR
AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY WHILE
EASTERN AREAS EXPERIENCE A SUBDUED WARMING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
STILL SHORT OF NORMALCY BY 5 TO 18 DEGREES.
WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY BY
10-14 DECAMETERS WITH LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHS REDEVELOPING EACH
DAY. CONSEQUENTIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PLAINS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING GETS UNDERWAY, AND ALL ZONES WILL OBSERVE DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE GAINS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHILE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PERSIST. A FEW RECORD HIGHS, MAINLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM,
WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY BE SET MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AREAS TODAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY RETREAT ONLY SLOWLY TODAY AND
MAY NOT COMPLETELY LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN WITH EVEN GREATER
COVERAGE IMPACTING MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE PASSING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER TODAY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH PERIODS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST,
EXCEPT IN THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. FURTHER, A GUSTY
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL WILL DIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 20-35 KT
RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS MOVING IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY UNTIL
THURSDAY ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, EXCEPT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK. A DISTURBANCE PASSING EASTWARD
OVER THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE THERE. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST UNTIL
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 20 52 25 / 20 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 5 47 15 / 30 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 16 50 23 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 12 56 18 / 20 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 19 51 21 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 13 57 19 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 52 19 55 24 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 27 57 31 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 23 55 26 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 16 63 20 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 28 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 8 42 16 / 50 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 24 47 27 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 20 49 20 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 18 45 21 / 40 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 9 35 13 / 60 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 5 39 3 / 60 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 13 47 17 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 44 15 48 17 / 40 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 17 55 22 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 22 50 24 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 18 52 22 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 29 54 33 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 27 56 32 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 22 58 25 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 25 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 60 21 59 26 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 24 57 27 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 19 58 24 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 24 58 28 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 21 58 26 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 25 54 28 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 25 56 29 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 28 62 31 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 23 50 25 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 25 52 27 / 20 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 19 53 20 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 12 55 15 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 15 44 16 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 20 53 22 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 20 53 23 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 26 56 26 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 24 45 20 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 2 28 6 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 6 31 7 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 7 34 7 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 8 39 13 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 16 -3 19 6 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 6 24 8 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 26 8 31 12 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 9 35 14 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 23 4 27 12 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 25 5 28 11 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 5 30 10 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 33 7 37 13 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 20 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 18 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 58 20 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ230-231-234>237.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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