140
FXUS65 KABQ 182215
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
NIGHT AND DAY TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE STATE. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
A POTENT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS INVADED THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ARE STUCK IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S
WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE 40 TO 50 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON! LOW CLOUDS
LOOKED TO HAVE BROKEN UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM,
EXPECT FOR UNION COUNTY, INCLUDING CLAYTON. ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM, TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BREAKING UP BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST NM. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST NM
EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS IT EXITS,
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN UNION, NORTHERN QUAY AND WESTERN HARDING COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS GETS REINFORCED
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM, EXPECT ACROSS
UNION COUNTY INCLUDING CLAYTON WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
ZERO. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN AT CLAYTON,
TUCUMCARI, CLOVIS AND FORT SUMNER WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS GETTING CLOSE. WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR A LIGHT EAST
WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH VALUES BETWEEN
0 TO -10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS, EXPECT NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. KEPT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MOSTLY IN PLACE, JUST ADDING EASTERN SAN MIGUEL TO IT. THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE OK/TX/KS/CO/NM INTERSECTING BORDERS LOOK TO
RESURGE SOUTHWEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T
LOOK EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING FOG DUE TO SLIGHT SEPARATIONS
IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT, BUT BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND SFC
UPSLOPE FLOW DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO LAS VEGAS, RATON
AND CLOVIS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLY
COLD WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ENTER WESTERN NM
IN THE MORNING SPREADING EAST TO THE REST OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS LOCKED IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO MID
30S, EXPECT FOR EASTERN UNION COUNTY, INCLUDING CLAYTON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY FAIL TO MAKE IT TO 20! THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE
MUCH WARMER IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
COMPARED TO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM. HOWEVER, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 5 TO 5 BELOW ZERO, SO ISSUED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD.
UNION COUNTY GETS CLOSE TO THEIR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THEY COULD BE ADDED TO IT AS WELL, BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MAKE THE CALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FINALLY START TO MODIFY ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM,
INCLUDING AT CLAYTON, CLOVIS AND PORTALES. SHOULD THESE AREAS
STAY BELOW 32 DEGREES, IT WILL BE THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY FOR THEM TO
DO SO. MEANWHILE, WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH WESTERLY BREEZES.
FORTUNATELY, THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NM WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL (GENERALLY BY 10 TO
20 DEGREES). ADDITIONALLY ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE STATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, BUT
SHOULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. RATHER, THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN NM.
AN IMPRESSIVE WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOUGH ONE MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL AGAIN BE MOISTURE-STARVED AND CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AREAWIDE. DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE, HEIGHTS WILL BE
SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH
TOMORROW, SO THE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY RETREAT EAST BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SURGING BACK WEST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NM/CO BORDER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE OR WILL QUICKLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM IN
ITS WAKE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP ONCE SKIES CLEAR.
SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TAF SITES. WINDS TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. THE DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE A LOCALIZED BAND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS JUST
NORTH OF KTCC THIS EVENING FROM 23Z TO 03Z. INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING FOG AT KLVS AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO
THE UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY
WHERE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY ON MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS, EXCEPT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS WEEK. A RAPID WARMUP FOR EASTERN NM TRULY BEGINS
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPANDS EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM COME MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES COMBINING WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO
15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. ANY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL MELT AND
SUBLIMATE COME THIS TIME POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME ELEVATED
STREAMFLOWS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, WITH THE ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION BEING A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 50 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 8 47 16 52 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 16 50 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 11 57 17 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 11 57 18 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 57 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 57 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 16 62 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 20 65 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 9 42 17 45 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 46 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 17 47 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 46 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 36 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 39 13 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 13 46 16 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 14 47 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 19 56 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 23 47 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 17 51 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 55 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 19 60 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 59 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 60 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 59 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 60 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 64 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 50 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 26 52 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 20 53 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 13 56 13 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 15 45 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 21 53 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 21 53 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 57 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 21 44 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 4 27 8 36 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 6 31 8 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 4 32 7 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 7 41 13 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... -3 19 6 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 3 26 7 32 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 6 30 13 38 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 8 32 14 36 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 4 29 13 37 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 6 28 8 32 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 4 29 6 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 7 32 13 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 38 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 17 38 12 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 20 43 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ230>232-234>237.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR NMZ235-236-238-240.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71
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