704
FXUS65 KABQ 191732 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1032 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS INVADED EASTERN NM AND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES OR LESS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO, A
PRONOUNCED CONTRAST WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN REMAINING CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. TODAY WILL THEREFORE START OUT WITH
FRIGID AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS,
WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATIONS EACH DAY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS STRETCH. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SO MUCH THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL COME
CLOSE TO OR REACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH RECORD AND NEAR
RECORD COLD LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS BOTH THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RECORD AND NEAR RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE MID 20S ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
EVEN THOUGH PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN A
BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF NM IS
EXCEEDINGLY COLD AS WELL, SO A WINDSHIFT FROM THAT DIRECTION WON'T
BRING ANY RELIEF. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE ADDING THE
NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THIS MORNING'S COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY, AS WELL AS UNION, HARDING, QUAY, AND DE BACA
COUNTIES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S,
WHICH WILL VARY FROM 4 BELOW TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND SNOW
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LIKE YESTERDAY, LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE ONLY SLOWLY TODAY ACROSS THE
EAST, LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR NM'S EASTERN
BORDER.
THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER
EASTERN AREAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW TO 6
DEGREES IN MOST PLACES, EXCEPT UP TO 12 DEGREES ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. NONETHELESS, LOCATIONS ON THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS OF 30 AND
32 FORECAST IN CLAYTON AND CLOVIS/PORTALES RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
THE NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION IS NOW LOOKING TO BE STRETCHED
HORIZONTALLY AS IT DROPS INTO UT AND CO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CO, WELL AHEAD OF SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHILE A LAGGING
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS DUE WEST OF THIS FEATURE IN UT. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH THIS SCENARIO,
PERHAPS STARTING EARLIER OVER NORTHERN NM AND CO BEFORE DAWN
FRIDAY, BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE QPF. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WOULD TEND TO PREVAIL IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY, BUT WOULD BE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE AS AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH SAG IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND GAINS OF A FEW
DEGREES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE UT SHORTWAVE WOULD THEN
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT SNOW.
DESPITE THE WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
SATURDAY’S HIGHS WOULD SOAR UPWARD WITH THE 24 HOUR DEPARTURES
BEING MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL INVOKE SOME MODERATE DOWNSLOPING BREEZES. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH A SWATH OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NM. THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE APPEARS
MUCH SHARPER AND MORE PROMINENT THAN RECENT RUNS, HOWEVER ITS NET
EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL. THE FEATURE IS
MODELED TO BE VOID OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE, AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION. DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, PRESSURE HEIGHTS WOULD QUICKLY GAIN WHAT THEY LOST THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM ZONES, EVEN WITH A MALFORMED LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. BREEZES
WOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH A BIT MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY NIGHT’S SHORTWAVE.
A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SWELLS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND WESTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING SOME WITH
SLIGHT JOG EAST ON TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS
FOR 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT, MONDAY’S PROGNOSIS FROM THE NAEFS
IS HITTING THE 98-99TH PERCENTILE OVER AZ/NM/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WARMING ON MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURE RISES
STALL SOME ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WOULD ALSO SAG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS WITH SOME OF THIS AIRMASS SEEPING
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND OFFERING A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMARKABLE AND
CLOSING IN UPON DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT IMPROVE AT KTCC. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WESTWARD EXPANSION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING, IMPACTING
KLVS, KTCC AND KROW ONCE AGAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KROW
AND KTCC, BUT HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLVS.
ELSEWHERE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS
IS FORECAST LATER TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH RECORD AND NEAR RECORD COLD HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE NORTHWEST SHIFTS SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY VARY
FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR
AVERAGES THIS WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS IT PASSES
MAINLY NORTH OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE WIND GUSTS
PEAKING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE OVER CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE AZ
BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP BELOW
15 PERCENT. THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR TWO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES ON MONDAY, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 47 16 52 15 / 0 0 5 10
CUBA............................ 49 21 53 20 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 56 17 59 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 27 56 18 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 18 61 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 26 61 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 33 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 27 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 21 63 18 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 27 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 17 45 15 / 0 0 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 28 51 27 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 47 20 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 23 47 23 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 19 39 14 / 0 5 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 13 43 13 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 46 16 51 19 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 47 18 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 21 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 26 53 25 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 22 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 35 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 31 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 28 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 25 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 26 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 24 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 26 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 24 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 29 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 26 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 29 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 20 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 13 56 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 16 46 18 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 21 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 20 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 8 36 12 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 31 8 37 12 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 7 38 12 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 13 40 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 17 4 30 11 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 25 7 32 12 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 10 38 15 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 13 36 14 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 10 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 25 8 32 12 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 7 32 11 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 30 12 35 14 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 39 16 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 39 11 39 15 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 43 14 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ228>232-234>237.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR NMZ230-231-234>238-240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
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