374
FXUS65 KABQ 192141
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
- A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN NM THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
- LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MAJORITY OF NEW
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS THEN WARM UP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND HIGHS
UP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM
SOME PERIODIC BREEZINESS, PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES KEEPING PRECIPITATION NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDGED INTO EASTERN NM, GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF THE HIGHLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS. COLD
AIR STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND EXPAND BACK WESTWARD AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH DAILY
RECORD LOWS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND INCREASE SOME
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
BY AFTERNOON. WARMING IS FORECAST AREAWIDE THURSDAY, INCLUDING
ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MODIFY BUT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTABLY,
CLAYTON, CLOVIS AND PORTALES WILL REMAIN IN THE FREEZE LOCKER
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN
NM, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (LESS THAN 20%) LOOK TO SEEP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CO-NM BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN TUSAS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED DOWN ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATION
AREAS GETTING BETWEEN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, EASTERN NEW MEXICO BEGINS TO WARM UP AS
PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO THE REPLACE THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS.
A SECOND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE AND CLOSE OFF OVER NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN SOME UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. THIS 563-565 H5 LOW WILL ACTUALLY RAISE PRESSURE
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN NEW MEXICO (500MB
HEIGHTS OF 565 ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR),
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
WEEK AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. ONCE
THE SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, INCREASING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 500 MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS
RISING TO NEAR 580 DM OVER THE AREA (WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR FEBRUARY ACCORDING TO LOCAL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY), THERE IS
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING SOME
BREEZY NW WINDS TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WITH DOWNSLOPING LOOKING
TO FURTHER HEAT UP THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EASTERN AREAS. AS A
RESULT, BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO UPPER END OF
GUIDANCE AND APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AROUND THE STATE. OVERALL, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LAND THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TO BEGIN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT IMPROVE AT KTCC. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND WESTWARD EXPANSION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING, IMPACTING
KLVS, KTCC AND KROW ONCE AGAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KROW
AND KTCC, BUT HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLVS.
ELSEWHERE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS
IS FORECAST LATER TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A WARMING TREND AREAWIDE THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN/MON. IN THE MEANTIME, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL HANG-ON
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND KEEP FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BUT
WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION. STRONGER WESTERLIES
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO
GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH POOR RATES IN SOME VALLEYS AND ACROSS
EASTERN NM IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 56 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 53 15 49 / 0 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 23 54 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 15 59 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 26 57 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 18 61 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 25 61 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 62 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 61 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 20 65 17 62 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 68 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 14 47 15 43 / 0 5 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 52 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 51 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 49 23 46 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 21 40 19 37 / 5 0 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 45 17 41 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 17 52 17 49 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 15 51 18 48 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 20 59 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 27 53 27 49 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 56 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 60 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 63 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 64 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 62 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 65 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 27 62 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 64 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 27 62 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 64 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 59 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 62 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 65 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 55 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 57 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 57 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 59 17 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 48 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 56 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 54 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 28 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 9 37 13 41 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 8 40 12 48 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 8 41 11 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 10 44 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 4 29 10 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 8 34 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 10 39 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 11 36 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 8 35 12 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 9 31 10 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 8 30 9 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 12 36 13 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 15 37 16 47 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 14 39 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 17 48 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR NMZ230-231-234>238-240.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
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