064
FXUS65 KABQ 201029
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
- ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER EASTERN NM AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATING SOME ON FRIDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ARCTIC AIR THAT IS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP FAR DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
THERE WHEN COMPARED TO REMAINING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE
STATE. FRIGID AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
DAY AGAIN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING BELOW
ZERO IN MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EASE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
READINGS WARM A BIT MORE. DURING THIS TIME, WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STUBBORNLY KEEP ITS GRASP ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS TODAY, WHERE ONE MORE DAY OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST. WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE EXPANDING
COVERAGE OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST AND
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, AS WELL AS GUADALUPE AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTIES, SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO OR NEAR CRITERIA. THE
ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN PLAINS ENDS AT 9 AM
MST THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FREEZING FOG, AND SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL WARM A FEW TO 17 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS, AND 1042 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS STEER SURFACE WINDS OVER NM'S EASTERN PLAINS CONSISTENTLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT PASSES EASTWARD OVER CO TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIND GUSTS
PEAKING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS, EXCEPT UP TO 35
MPH OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS.
TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE EAST KEEP WARMING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NM, CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
BRIEF AND TRANSIENT TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM WITH LOTS OF SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION STILL
OCCURRING IN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELED QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO, AND ONLY A
FEW NORTHERN TO WEST CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LOW WOULD KICK OUT
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO THE DAYTIME SATURDAY
WITH VIRGA BEING ABOUT THE ONLY HOPE FOR THESE AREAS. SATURDAY’S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE IN ALL ZONES WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS
JUMPING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY READINGS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER SWATH OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT QUICKLY DROPS INTO NORTHERN NM.
SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR, MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND LARGELY
UNABLE TO PRECIPITATE.
HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN
WESTERN NM BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND EXITS
INTO TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONTRAST TO THIS, A WEAK LEE-
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES IN MUCH OF
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PASSING WAVE AND LOWER
PRESSURE HEIGHTS, SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GAINS OF ANOTHER 5 TO 10
DEGREES (EVEN AS MUCH AS 15 IN CHAVES COUNTY) WILL ENSUE ACROSS
ALL ZONES.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN NUDGE FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WESTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. MODELED
PRESSURE HEIGHTS FROM THE NAEFS STILL ADVERTISE VALUES IN THE 98
TO 99TH PERCENTILE WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN IN EASTERN NM WITH SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ALSO LIKELY TAKING SHAPE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS UP INTO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OF THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN RACE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE ONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM ON TUESDAY WITH
MINOR SUPPRESSIONS TO PRESSURE HEIGHTS. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO ENTER EASTERN ZONES, BRINGING A COUPLE TO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT OTHER ZONES WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY. EACH DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SEVERAL
AREAS WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS, MAINLY IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. WEDNESDAY WOULD THEN SEE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS (KS/NE/IA). THIS WOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES IN NM, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS WILL STILL PERSIST
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
LOW STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF IFR CIGS IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SPRINGER
SOUTHWARD TO FORT SUMNER HOWEVER LOW CIGS MAY BRIEFLY CREEP INTO
KLVS AND KROW DESPITE NOT BEING MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ANY LOW
STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD ERODE QUICKER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE KICKS IN OUT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE CO
ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS AT TIMES. A DRY
PACIFIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY, WHERE ONE MORE DAY OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS, AND A 1042 MB
SURFACE HIGH SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS,
SHIFT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON NM'S EASTERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE WIND GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT UP TO 35 MPH OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY, WHILE READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST KEEP WARMING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL PEAK
AROUND 10-21 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY CAUSING THE
TEMPERATURE SPIKE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY, THEN
AREAWIDE BEHIND A GUSTY PACIFIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 14 49 12 / 5 5 10 5
CUBA............................ 54 18 49 20 / 5 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 59 13 53 15 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 57 23 50 19 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 61 16 54 18 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 61 22 53 20 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 60 29 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 59 23 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 17 62 18 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 15 43 12 / 5 10 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 27 48 27 / 0 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 51 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 22 45 19 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 18 36 12 / 0 10 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 17 40 4 / 0 5 10 5
TAOS............................ 52 17 49 16 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 51 18 48 18 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 58 21 56 22 / 0 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 52 26 49 26 / 0 5 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 22 53 24 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 27 60 26 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 62 24 61 26 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 61 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 23 60 25 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 60 27 59 28 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 23 59 26 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 58 30 54 29 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 29 58 29 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 63 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 27 50 26 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 56 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 24 53 23 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 16 55 16 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 18 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 24 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 22 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 24 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 36 13 41 16 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 12 48 16 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 40 11 48 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 15 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 9 42 21 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 12 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 15 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 14 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 11 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 10 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 29 9 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 34 13 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 34 16 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 36 14 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 17 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ228>238-
240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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