374
FXUS65 KABQ 210539 AAD
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
- A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOSE
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE SHALLOW
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SHIFTED WEST TO EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE THIS EVENING. THIS UPDATE DROPS MIN TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE AIRMASS WHERE
FORECAST LOWS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SURPASSED. THE 02Z HRRR HANDLED
THIS RECENT TREND WELL WITH SOME DRAINAGE EVEN NOTED AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SANDIAS INTO THE ABQ METRO. THERE WERE NO
CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES. HOWEVER, THE AREA FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO LAS VEGAS MAY SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -5F FOR
A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER BY
SUNRISE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AS GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY
MODIFYING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WARM THE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH FRIGID MORNING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO ONCE MORE DURING THE MORNING. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE STATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS BEING THREATENED AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE STATE. DESPITE
SOME BRIEF PASSING CLOUDS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL UT, WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CO OVERNIGHT WHILE GRAZING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, A DRY
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN NM WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE FOR NOTABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH ONLY AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NM IS MODIFYING CURRENTLY,
WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WOULD BE THE
MOST-LIKELY CANDIDATE. RELATIVE WARMING IS FORECAST TONIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS, BUT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR CURRY,
ROOSEVELT AND CHAVES COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH DAILY
RECORD LOWS. MORE WARMING AND FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NM IS FORECAST FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL
BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SOME COOLING IS FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN NM FRIDAY AS A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM UT
AND THE FOUR CORNERS, BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH UP TO
NEAR AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A 566-570 MB H5 LOW NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE LITTLE MOISTURE
THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES BRING IN WILL CREATE A STREAM OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SPRINKLES
MAY BE OBSERVED, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. DENSER CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TX-
NM BORDER MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME VIRGA SHOWERS IN CHAVES COUNTY. AS
THE LOW EXITS OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND, BRINING IN ANOTHER BRIEF LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE THIS BRIEF DIP
IN PRESSURE, HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE RISING DURING THIS TIME AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL CREEP UP
INTO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME BREEZINESS ON MONDAY AS A
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIRTY-
FIVE TO FORTY KNOT 700MB WINDS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NW WINDS FOR
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. AS A 1000-1002 MB LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, 30 TO 35 KT WNW GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW
HOURS. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY FLATTENED OUT THE
RIDGE A BIT FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD, SO 500 MB
HEIGHTS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB 580 DM FOR MOST OF THE REGION (STILL
WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). ENSEMBLE AND
MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT
WITH THESE LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS, DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS UPPER END GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
REGARDLESS, SEVERAL RECORDS LOOK TO BE THREATENED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS GALLUP AND
FARMINGTON. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALSO LOOK TO HEAT THINGS UP OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE, PARTICULARLY FOR ROSWELL WHICH LOOKS
TO GET UP INTO THE LOW 80S. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE STATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY LATE TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, CREATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR NEW MEXICO AS THE STATE
BEGINS TO FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING
TO ITS WEST, AND TROUGHING TO ITS EAST. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS
TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS A 120 KT JET STREAK CROSSES
OVERHEAD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, IT LOOKS TO PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO, COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
VERY COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOWER TONIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS FAVOR
THE AREA AROUND ROSWELL AND CLAYTON BUT WITH <20% CHANCE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE WESTERN NM REMAINS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. WARMING/DRYING IS FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION, GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
WESTERLIES ON TUESDAY. BY MONDAY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT A NUMBER
OF LOCALES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY COME BACK
AGAIN TUESDAY, BUT LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY AT THIS
TIME. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITER FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MON/TUE. A PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 52 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 48 12 52 / 5 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 19 47 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 52 12 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 23 50 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 54 16 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 54 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 25 54 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 18 61 18 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 65 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 14 42 13 47 / 10 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 48 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 12 48 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 44 18 50 / 5 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 35 13 42 / 10 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 41 5 47 / 5 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 48 15 53 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 15 46 17 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 54 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 23 49 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 19 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 55 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 60 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 57 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 59 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 26 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 59 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 54 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 22 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 20 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 12 53 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 8 55 16 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 9 48 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 17 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 15 49 27 52 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 9 38 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 8 45 15 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 8 46 14 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 10 46 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 8 42 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 9 42 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 13 45 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 12 45 19 62 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 9 42 18 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 9 40 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 9 42 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 11 44 17 58 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 16 45 22 57 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 12 46 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 13 50 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ235-236-238.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42
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