473
FXUS65 KABQ 211720 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVER EASTERN NM
ARE COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 0850 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING PAST SUNRISE OVER EASTERN NM.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY
MODIFYING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WARM THE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH FRIGID MORNING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS WITH SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS BEING THREATENED AND TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE STATE. DESPITE SOME BRIEF
PASSING CLOUDS, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2025
EXPANDED THIS MORNING'S COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER WEST IN
ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM MST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS DUE TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
ARRIVED LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB UP TO 13 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY'S READINGS BREAKING THE
EASTERN PLAINS OUT OF A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. EXCEPT FOR LITTLE OR NO CHANGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL CLIMB A FEW TO
AROUND 20 ADDITIONAL DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST THU FEB 21 2025
THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A 566-570 MB H5 LOW NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE LITTLE MOISTURE
THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES BRING IN WILL CREATE A STREAM OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SPRINKLES
MAY BE OBSERVED, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. DENSER CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TX-
NM BORDER MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME VIRGA SHOWERS IN CHAVES COUNTY. AS
THE LOW EXITS OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND, BRINING IN ANOTHER BRIEF LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE THIS BRIEF DIP
IN PRESSURE, HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE RISING DURING THIS TIME AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL CREEP UP
INTO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME BREEZINESS ON MONDAY AS A
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIRTY-
FIVE TO FORTY KNOT 700MB WINDS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NW WINDS FOR
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. AS A 1000-1002 MB LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, 30 TO 35 KT WNW GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW
HOURS. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY FLATTENED OUT THE
RIDGE A BIT FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD, SO 500 MB
HEIGHTS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB 580 DM FOR MOST OF THE REGION (STILL
WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). ENSEMBLE AND
MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT
WITH THESE LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS, DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS UPPER END GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
REGARDLESS, SEVERAL RECORDS LOOK TO BE THREATENED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS GALLUP AND
FARMINGTON. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALSO LOOK TO HEAT THINGS UP OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE, PARTICULARLY FOR ROSWELL WHICH LOOKS
TO GET UP INTO THE LOW 80S. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE STATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY LATE TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, CREATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR NEW MEXICO AS THE STATE
BEGINS TO FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING
TO ITS WEST, AND TROUGHING TO ITS EAST. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS
TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS A 120 KT JET STREAK CROSSES
OVERHEAD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, IT LOOKS TO PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO, COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR PREVAILS AREAWIDE TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR CO TODAY. LIGHT
PREVAILING WESTERLIES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THRU CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING CO TO THE
EAST, AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVED LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL UP TO 10 DEGREES TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS FINALLY EXITS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST
AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS MONDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL PEAK AROUND
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES WITH SOME NEW RECORDS LIKELY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CAUSING THE TEMPERATURE SPIKE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY, THEN AREAWIDE BEHIND GUSTY PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 21 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 11 53 13 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 17 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 13 57 15 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 25 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 17 58 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 31 57 30 / 0 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 62 19 62 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 24 66 27 / 0 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 42 12 48 15 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 17 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 12 42 17 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 2 48 10 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 14 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 45 18 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 20 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 22 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 24 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 26 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 23 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 27 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 24 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 31 65 31 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 23 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 15 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 21 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 23 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 22 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 28 59 32 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 27 54 34 / 0 0 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 16 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 42 13 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 13 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 18 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 39 21 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 40 18 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 45 21 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 20 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 19 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 19 56 27 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 42 18 57 27 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 18 58 26 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 22 58 28 / 0 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 46 21 58 33 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 53 24 59 32 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24
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