127
FXUS65 KABQ 222158
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES AREAWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
DRY WEATHER PREVAILING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LAST VESTIGES OF A 569DM H5 LOW CLOAKED IN IRRELEVANCE IS
CENTERED OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM THIS HOUR, TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE BORDERLANDS. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EVIDENT FROM THIS
FEATURE, ASIDE FROM THE BROKEN SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. PLEASANT LATE FEBRUARY WEATHER REIGNS SUPREME OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST THRU THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BETWEEN LAS VEGAS, MORIARTY, AND RUIDOSO TONIGHT
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO TREND WARMER. VALLEY TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THRU CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 10S FOR LOWS IN THESE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS CLIMB 5F TO
10F MOST AREAS, 15F TO 20F THRU EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM,
WITH WIDESPREAD 60F TO 70F FOR HIGHS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE EERILY
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH ITS OVERALL SETUP, ALLOWING MONDAY MORNING'S
LOWS TO TREND WARMER 5F TO 10F.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT A BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND CONT. DIVIDE AS WELL. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS, WHICH WILL
BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS, ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES APPEARS UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN
THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT DOESN'T HAVE THE ARCTIC
ORIGINS OF PREVIOUS COLD SNAPS SO THE COOLDOWN WILL BE MUCH LESS
SEVERE. HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH, SOARING TEMPS BACK WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
STARTING ON THE 1ST DAY OF MARCH, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT. A TROUGHING SIGNAL OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MOSTLY ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST,
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SEASONABLY HIGH (IN THE 7-
8KFT RANGE). AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, HOWEVER NEW MEXICO MAY END UP BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEMS, WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
POTENTIALLY BEING THE ONLY BENEFICIARIES OF THIS MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS. BROKEN CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF NM CLEAR
OUT THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY ALONGSIDE BREEZY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THRU THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AREA WHERE ELEVATED TO SHORT-LIVED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT BACKS THRU EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 13 56 18 61 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 20 57 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 64 21 69 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 23 59 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 63 22 69 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 59 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 26 60 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 15 70 22 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 20 74 26 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 16 51 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 56 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 54 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 21 45 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 56 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 64 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 58 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 61 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 65 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 68 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 18 68 22 74 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 67 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 68 22 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 67 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 67 23 73 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 66 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 70 33 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 64 22 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 59 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 24 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 61 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 64 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 59 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 66 27 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 64 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 29 64 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 64 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 67 30 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 66 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 64 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 29 68 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 69 33 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 25 67 32 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 29 73 34 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 69 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 30 71 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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