104
FXUS65 KABQ 280555 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE HEADING
INTO THE EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR FRIDAY AND EACH DAY
ONWARD WITH PATCHY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST EACH DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND VIRGA DECREASES GOING INTO THE
EVENING. DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF FIRE THREAT FOR CERTAIN AREAS ALONG EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BRING
IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO PICK UP NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS
THIS WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
A POORLY-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY
WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST AWAY FROM NM TONIGHT. A NOTABLE MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM TRENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO
BETWEEN 0.50" AND 0.70" ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 10S OVER WESTERN NM TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CELLS ACROSS CENTRAL NM WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED
THRU LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. ACTIVITY
FARTHER EAST HAS BEEN WETTER WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING UP TO 0.10"
TO 0.25" AROUND RUIDOSO. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED VERY LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5" IN SOME OF THE SLOW-MOVING CELLS BETWEEN CORONA
AND VAUGHN. THE DRIER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH WITH BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. THE BRIEF APPEARANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL END
THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN NM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS. MOST SHOWERS WILL END BY 9PM FOLLOWED BY REMNANT
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WHILE READINGS TREND A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND STRONGER THERMAL
INVERSIONS.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER AND THUS DELAYS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPER LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STRONGER WINDS. OVERALL, MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH MAX TEMPS RISING 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN
MOST AREAS. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE
DAY, SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE GREAT BASIN. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT BREEZES
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER SLIGHTLY DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS HAS ONCE AGAIN TRENDED
DOWNWARDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, REDUCING THE RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PATCHY AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT AND A 994 TO 998
MB SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER, WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE STATE WILL GET PRETTY BREEZY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.
STRONGER 700 MB WINDS OF 45 KTS WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE ROBUST GUSTS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. A SECOND
REINFORCING TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WESTERLIES FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS. NEW MEXICO WILL BE UNDER A
DUAL-FLANK FRONTAL ASSAULT DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAY'S SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIRTY TO FORTY KNOT 700
MB WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN CREATING GUSTIER CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THESE FRONTS. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE AVERAGE TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE REST OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDS ON MONDAY, LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE GREATLY PAST MONDAY, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS
SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER, MOST ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE GEPS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SOLUTIONS
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE (SUCH AS THE ONE SHOWN BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS) ARE MORE OF AN OUTLIER, WITH ONLY 15 PERCENT OF
MEMBERS AGREEING ON THIS OUTCOME. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR A WINDIER AND MORE DISTURBED ENVIRONMENT FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HINTS AT MUCH MORE ROBUST STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS BUILDING UP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO INCREASED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITONS IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY AROUND
ROSWELL AND FARTHER EAST AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPROCK, INCLUDING
CLOVIS AND PORTALES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT, SINCE
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AREN'T DEPICTING LOWER CEILINGS, BUT
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS
COMING. MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO UNDER FORECAST THE RETURN FLOW
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN US, WHICH IS THE CASE TONIGHT, SO WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT AND UPDATE THE KROW TAF AS SOON AS CONFIDENCE GETS HIGH
ENOUGH THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THERE. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WITH
PEAK GUSTS REACHING UP TO 35 KT AT KGUP, KLVS, AND KSRR. FRIDAY
EVENING THERE IS A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND CHAMA, DULCE, CUBA, AND
FARMINGTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
..LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY HIGH-BASED
WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED. A
MIXTURE OF WET/DRY CELLS IS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
VAUGHN AND CORONA WITH EVEN SOME WET CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO BORDERLINE POOR/FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
FORECAST CHANGES CONTINUE TO EMERGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN FAVOR
OF DECREASING COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. SEVERAL HOURS OF
PATCHY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE AREA STRETCHING
FROM NEAR SOCORRO NORTHEASTWARD TO VAUGHN AND LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. THE
WIND IS THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITY REMAINS SUBCRITICAL
WITH MANY AREAS AS LOW AS 10%. WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE MIN HUMIDITY REMAINS SUBCRITICAL BELOW 8,000 FT. IF
THESE TRENDS ALSO CONTINUE, THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN PATCHY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES LEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE BORDERLINE POOR/FAIR IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY.
THE OVERALL BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT CHANGES, THE OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME ON CRITICAL CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 71 39 65 / 0 10 20 0
DULCE........................... 32 70 29 61 / 0 10 30 5
CUBA............................ 36 71 33 61 / 0 5 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 32 69 27 62 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 67 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 73 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 36 70 32 61 / 0 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 45 74 40 65 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 38 69 35 61 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 32 73 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 78 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 63 28 54 / 0 5 30 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 69 39 61 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 39 69 39 61 / 5 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 67 32 59 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 27 61 25 49 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 63 29 55 / 5 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 31 71 32 62 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 34 69 36 62 / 5 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 40 77 38 69 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 70 39 62 / 5 0 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 74 38 66 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 78 47 68 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 79 46 70 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 81 45 73 / 5 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 79 45 71 / 5 0 5 0
BELEN........................... 44 82 42 73 / 5 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 80 44 72 / 0 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 44 81 43 73 / 5 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 44 80 45 72 / 0 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 81 44 72 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 76 44 67 / 0 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 79 44 71 / 0 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 84 46 76 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 71 40 63 / 5 5 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 41 74 42 65 / 5 5 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 74 39 66 / 5 0 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 75 37 67 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 71 39 63 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 74 40 66 / 10 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 73 41 66 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 76 47 70 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 70 47 63 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 40 73 39 63 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 37 76 38 68 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 36 77 40 69 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 73 39 66 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 81 48 73 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 42 78 43 69 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 47 84 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 81 48 72 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 85 49 77 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 48 84 49 80 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 83 48 80 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 84 48 77 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 88 51 84 / 20 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 81 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 79 48 74 / 20 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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