851
FXUS65 KABQ 281207 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND EACH DAY
ONWARD. THE WINDIEST DAYS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
- IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH
DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY, STAYING BREEZY TO WINDY EACH DAY
THEREAFTER WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE
NOTABLY STRONGER ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN GUSTS COULD EVEN PRODUCE DAMAGE ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. EACH AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND GROWTH DUE TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, BUT WILL TEND TO
STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE FOUR CORNERS IN A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT, AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF A 992 MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO, SO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS WILL PROBABLY
APPROACH 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND GALLUP AND LAS VEGAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A 15-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TUSAS AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A BIT FURTHER ON
SATURDAY, WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, AND
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BASIN, AND RANGE. PEAK GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 35-45 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS. HOWEVER, A BROAD
AREA OF THIN, HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
FORECAST ARE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS COULD BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DECREASE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND PREVENT WINDS FROM
GUSTING AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 6 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES TODAY. TONIGHT, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE
WEST DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY,
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHT, BUT STILL, 700 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE PROJECTED
TO DECREASE, GENERALLY TO A 20-30 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BE RECESSED CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS, AS
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE INTRUDING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN NM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS MORE ON THE BREEZY SIDE,
REDUCED FROM SATURDAY’S STRONGER SPEEDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS WOULD BE SCANT AND MINUSCULE, MOSTLY
FOCUSED OVER CO RATHER THAN NORTHERN NM, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
UNDERGO A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN MANY ZONES,
PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN ONES BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE OUTLINED, A BREAK IN THE OVERLY
PERTURBED FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ON MONDAY, BUT STIFF ZONAL FLOW WILL
STILL KEEP IT BREEZY TO WINDY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSING
FARTHER NORTH. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WOULD BE
FAVORED FOR GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THE ABSENCE OF PERTURBATIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AND BY TUESDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING, IF NOT CROSSING NORTHERN
NM. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND AND KEEPING THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE PART OF A LONGER WAVE FEATURE THAT WOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE GFS
PASSES THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH NORTHERN NM QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD SLOWLY BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHAPES UP. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAVE A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD
THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS THAT HOLISTICALLY RESEMBLE A LONGER WAVE
FEATURE THAT WOULD IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND NM TUESDAY-
THURSDAY AND EVEN BEYOND. DESPITE THESE OPPOSING SOLUTIONS, THERE
IS CONSENSUS FOR CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
PERHAPS EVEN REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND PRODUCING DAMAGE
ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD
ALSO LIKELY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THE POTENTIAL TROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL PROGRESS. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME KEEPS THEM
EAST OF ROSWELL AND SOUTH OF PORTALES, BUT IN THIS FORECASTER'S
ESTIMATION THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER KROW. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD EVAPORATE BY MIDDAY, THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET.
PEAK GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH AROUND 35 KT AT KGUP, KLVS, AND
KSRR. THIS EVENING, A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH-TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND CHAMA, DULCE, CUBA, AND
FARMINGTON. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AROUND DULCE AND CUBA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY, TO A LESSER EXTENT
SUNDAY, ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, THEN LINGERING
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT BRISK FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER
READINGS NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER, AND ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
AS A RESULT DAILY ROUNDS OF AT LEAST LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE LAS VEGAS AND GALLUP AREAS TODAY.
SATURDAY MAY BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS A NOTCH, AS LONG AS CIRROSTRATUS
CLOUDS ALOFT DON'T GET TOO THICK, SO WE WILL IS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS, THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, AND
WEST CENTRAL AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
WATCH FOR SUNDAY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT SURROUNDING ZONES
CAN ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
MONDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AROUND GALLUP. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
WEEK ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, WHEN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STEERING THE JETSTREAM
OVER NORTHERN NM WHILE IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEST WIND
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM 40 TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 36 64 35 / 10 30 5 0
DULCE........................... 70 28 62 26 / 5 40 10 0
CUBA............................ 71 31 61 29 / 5 20 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 69 27 62 24 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 32 59 27 / 0 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 73 29 65 26 / 0 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 70 32 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 74 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 69 35 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 74 33 67 25 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 39 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 63 28 54 24 / 5 40 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 39 60 38 / 0 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 69 39 60 33 / 0 10 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 36 59 30 / 0 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 57 31 49 26 / 0 5 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 29 54 29 / 0 5 5 0
TAOS............................ 71 31 62 26 / 0 10 0 0
MORA............................ 69 35 61 32 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 78 37 69 33 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 70 39 61 35 / 0 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 38 65 33 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 47 68 42 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 44 69 41 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 43 72 35 / 0 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 44 70 40 / 0 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 83 41 73 39 / 5 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 81 43 71 39 / 0 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 41 72 36 / 0 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 81 44 71 38 / 0 10 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 43 72 38 / 0 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 75 44 66 40 / 0 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 44 71 41 / 0 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 85 45 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 40 62 37 / 0 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 74 42 63 38 / 0 10 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 38 65 36 / 0 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 35 66 31 / 0 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 37 62 33 / 0 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 40 65 35 / 0 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 39 65 35 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 47 69 40 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 47 62 35 / 0 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 39 63 30 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 76 38 67 32 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 77 39 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 82 47 73 36 / 0 0 5 10
ROY............................. 78 42 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 85 47 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 45 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 47 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 84 47 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 47 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 46 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 87 50 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 47 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 80 47 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-105-109-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ125.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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