092
FXUS65 KABQ 290605 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND EACH DAY
ONWARD. THE WINDIEST DAYS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
- IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH
DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. WINDS RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WINDS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STATE WILL STILL BE PRETTY GUSTY. MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO DIP BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ROLL THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN AZ WITH
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT ENTERING INTO WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING HAS TAPPED INTO THE 25 TO 40 KT 500-700 MB
WINDS RESULTING IN A TYPICAL BREEZY SPRING DAY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
DESPITE THE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR SOME,
DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM AND INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE RGV AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RESULTING IN SOME RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
SOUTHWEST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS
TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CO.
BRIEF CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MIDDAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THESE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
INTERFERE WITH MIXING DOWN 500 TO 700 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 45 KT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE, BUT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS WINDS EFFICIENTLY MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE MIDDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS AND VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS ACROSS EASTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWER RGV NEAR THE SOCORRO AND SIERRA COUNTY LINE BUT LESS
LIKELY ACROSS THE MIDDLE RGV, INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE, DUE TO LIGHTER
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAY AND NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING KEEPING
WINDS A LITTLE GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO MOVES INTO UNION, FAR
NORTHERN QUAY, AND NORTHEAST HARDING COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECTS BEHIND A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON
ITS WAY EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT EXITS,
IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE REST
OF STATE WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, WITH WESTERN AREAS
HOVERING JUST AROUND OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CREATE
SOME BREEZY WINDS ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOME STRONGER 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS
FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ZONAL, BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRETTY
BREEZY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 110 KTS ALONG THE NM-CO BORDER
CO-LOCATED WITH 50 KT 700 MB WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRETTY GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
GUIDANCE IS FINALLY STARTING TO COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MID-
WEEK WEATHER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS IS NOW MUCH MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ECMWF AND NO LONGER HAS A
RIDGE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND BRINGING US STRONGER WIDESPREAD WINDS ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP. ABOUT 60% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A DEEPER MORE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MUCH LIKE WHAT THE
EURO SHOWS. ABOUT 40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A MORE SHALLOW
TROUGH, MORE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS. THESE DIFFERENCES MAY AFFECT HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY REACH OUR REGION AND HOW COLD IT MAY GET.
WITH EITHER SOLUTION, WINDS WILL STILL BE PRETTY ROBUST AS A 120-130
KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. OVERALL, THE STRONGEST GUSTS, LOOK TO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SOME
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS, BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. WINDS THEN DECREASE FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THE PATTERN WILL
STILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY BREEZY. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD BRING SOME INCREASED
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT IS STILL YET TO BE SEEN HOW FAR SOUTH AND
HOW WIDESPREAD THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL THEN PEAK IN
THE 25-40 KT RANGE DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND KGUP, AND POTENTIALLY ALONG A
KCQC-KLVS LINE EASTWARD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY, LINGERING LONGEST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
AND THEREBY LIMIT WIND SPEEDS BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED TODAY IN DUST-PRONE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS LIKE GALLUP, AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS, WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. STRONGER MID
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT OVER THE WESTERN US,
WITH THE STATE UNDER THE STRONG WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A TOUCH LIGHTER AS THE STRONGEST MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SINK A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
DUE TO WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MIN RHS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SNEAKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD HELP KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S THOSE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL DOWN BELOW
AVERAGE AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND MORE SO
THURSDAY TO BRING AN END TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. IN THE END, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN NM SATURDAY,
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY, FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
MONDAY, ALMOST ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY, AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. BETTER RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES LOOK
POSSIBLE COME LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 64 35 60 / 30 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 30 60 27 57 / 50 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 32 60 29 57 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 26 62 26 62 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 59 28 57 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 29 64 27 61 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 62 29 61 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 42 65 35 65 / 0 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 36 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 32 67 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 36 71 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 29 53 24 51 / 40 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 60 35 57 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 62 33 59 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 58 29 55 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 30 48 25 46 / 5 5 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 54 26 50 / 5 5 0 5
TAOS............................ 31 62 27 58 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 35 62 31 58 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 68 34 66 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 60 34 59 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 65 34 62 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 67 41 66 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 70 41 68 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 72 40 71 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 70 40 68 / 10 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 44 73 39 72 / 10 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 45 71 40 69 / 10 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 43 72 39 71 / 10 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 44 72 40 69 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 72 39 71 / 10 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 66 39 63 / 10 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 70 40 68 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 76 41 75 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 62 36 61 / 10 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 64 37 62 / 10 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 65 35 63 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 67 33 64 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 41 66 35 64 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 67 36 63 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 68 40 67 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 62 39 61 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 67 31 55 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 38 71 32 60 / 0 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 39 73 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 67 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 46 75 37 59 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 42 72 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 47 79 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 77 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 80 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 78 44 74 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 46 79 45 74 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 82 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ104-105-
109-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ125.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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