381
FXUS65 KABQ 291212 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
612 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH TODAY AND TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAYS. AN
INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY.
- IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH
DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHILE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY STRONGER
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN GUSTS COULD EVEN
PRODUCE DAMAGE ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
DUST. EACH AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
AND GROWTH DUE TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY ONWARD
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING, MOSTLY IN
NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF NM, AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WILL
CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS BOTH DAYS WILL MOSTLY
VARY BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH AROUND LAS VEGAS
AND GALLUP. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND WINDS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WILL WEAKEN AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS THERE ON SUNDAY. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR
TODAY CAME DOWN SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, AND
OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE EVEN LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW THICK CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS
GET THERE TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15
PERCENT BOTH DAYS WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST
AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS, THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND THE SANDIA, MANZANO, WEST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT THAT CROSSED OVERNIGHT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AROUND 4 TO 11 DEGREES TODAY FROM FRIDAY'S
READINGS, WHILE REMAINING NEAR TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR
AVERAGES. ANOTHER GUSTY PACIFIC FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, AND A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST AREAS, SO
HIGHS SHOULD FALL A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OVER NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY, EXCEPT UP TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
DESPITE A GENTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PATTERN INTO MONDAY, WINDS
ALOFT WOULD BE STRENGTHENING LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE 700 MB WIND SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO GO FROM A MODEST 20-30 KT
OVER NM IN THE EARLY DAY BEFORE SURGING UP TO 30-40 KT BY EARLY
EVENING. THEREFORE, THE BREEZY TO WINDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND OCCURRING
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES,
REACHING NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME.
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, 700 MB FLOW WILL BE 35-50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NM,
AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD BE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE CO-KS
BORDER, DROPPING BELOW 990 MB AND PRESENTING A STOUT SURFACE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE (40-60%) POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE LEANING MORE TOWARD EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS,
TRYING TO CARVE OUT A LONGER WAVE, MULTI-DAY IMPACT TROUGH, BUT
IT STILL REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION, AS THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SOLUTIONS BACK THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING, OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE UPWARD FORCING FOR RAIN AND
SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NM.
A EUROPEAN SOLUTION WOULD ALSO CARRY THE STRONGER WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, LOWERING WIND SPEEDS IN NM VERSUS THE WINDIER
GFS. WHILE NO MODEL SUITE GENERATES ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY, THE ECMWF WOULD CARRY SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH, MAINLY
IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL ZONES. THE GFS WOULD EVENTUALLY COME
AROUND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SHARPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
DRAGGING ITS BASE OVER SOUTHERN CA THAT WOULD ALLOW DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN UP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND THIS WOULD
YIELD MORE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
NM FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINER DETAILS OF MODEL PROJECTIONS,
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES
AND PRECIPITATION TENDING TO FAVOR NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES. THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY RESTS WITH QPF, AS THE GFS/GEFS
BOAST HIGHER QPF (ESPECIALLY THE OPERATIONAL 29/0000UTC GFS).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS TODAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY REACH 40 KT. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND KLVS AND KGUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS EXPECTED IN DUST-PRONE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO FORECAST, AND THEY MAY INHIBIT ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING ENOUGH FOR OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS TO BE WEAKER AND GUSTS TO
BE MORE SPORADIC THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN TAFS; ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER THAN NORMAL
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
PACIFIC FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT BRISK FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGHER READINGS NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AND ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, DAILY ROUNDS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN FRIDAY, SO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THAT SAID, CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS COULD
GET PRETTY THICK TODAY, SO WE ONLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE EXPANDING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY TO INCLUDE THE SANDIA, MANZANO, AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THANKS
TO THE LEE TROUGH THERE, AND FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE NOSE OF THE POLAR JETSTREAM WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, WHEN MODELS
HAVE STRONG AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STEERING THE
JETSTREAM OVER NORTHERN NM WHILE IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25, AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST WHERE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER NOW ON A WEAKER
TAIL END OF THE JETSTREAM LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ZONES ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MODELS
VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THEY GENERALLY INDICATE THE STORM TRACK MAY
DIP SOUTHWARD AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE STATE,
ALONG WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 35 61 33 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 61 24 58 23 / 10 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 28 58 28 / 5 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 24 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 28 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 26 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 28 61 28 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 35 65 35 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 60 31 62 31 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 24 68 23 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 32 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 23 51 23 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 60 34 58 33 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 48 26 46 26 / 0 5 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 25 52 23 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 61 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 61 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 34 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 61 35 59 34 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 34 63 32 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 42 66 41 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 41 68 41 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 40 71 35 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 40 69 39 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 39 72 38 / 10 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 72 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 38 71 35 / 5 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 40 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 40 71 38 / 5 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 41 64 38 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 75 41 76 41 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 36 60 36 / 5 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 37 62 36 / 5 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 35 63 33 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 31 64 28 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 34 63 33 / 10 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 34 64 34 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 39 67 38 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 39 61 34 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 30 58 27 / 5 0 5 20
RATON........................... 67 30 63 27 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 67 33 64 28 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 32 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 36 62 32 / 5 5 5 20
ROY............................. 67 36 64 31 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 74 41 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 42 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 41 70 35 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 77 44 73 38 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 77 44 74 38 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 42 74 36 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 46 79 45 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 72 42 74 41 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 70 41 72 38 / 5 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-105-109-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-109-124-125.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-123.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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