924
FXUS65 KABQ 292327 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. THERE ARE
HIGH PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60%) FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
MPH OR GREATER FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY COUPLED
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RATHER
DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP. RELATIVELY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS IS THE DAY OF
CONCERN RELATED TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL ALSO ELEVATE
THE RISK FOR RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE GROWTH. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR INVADES THE REGION.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LESS ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NEW
MEXICO FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S., BRINGING SOME HOPE FOR ADDED MOISTURE AND
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN AZ, IS
PUSHING EASTWARD TODAY, SUPPLYING MUCH OF NM WITH A SWATCH OF HIGH
CLOUDS. A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM,
KICKING UP DUST IN AND AROUND THE ROSWELL AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE STATE, TAPERING OFF AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH NM LATER TONIGHT, LIGHT
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES MAY BE OBSERVED IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS, BUT
THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW (~10%). ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
NM, BRINGING RH VALUES UP INTO THE 70-80% IN AND AROUND UNION
COUNTY, AS WELL AS DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEMI-ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWS THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES,
WITH ELEVATED (30-40KT) 700MB FLOW REMAINING HITCHED TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ELEVATED 700MB FLOW DECREASES AROUND 5-
10KTS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON MIXING, MAINLY ACROSS
EAST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. A MINOR SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS
CENTRAL CO HAS A LOW (~10-20%) CHANCE TO BRING RAIN TO NORTHEAST
NM SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VERY BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL
LIKELY BE FLATTENED BY AFTERNOON AS A PERTURBATION TRAVERSES THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS HAPPENS, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL START TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CA WITH WINDS ALOFT
SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS NM. BY 21Z-00Z, 700HPA WINDS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE OVER NORTHERN NM, AND SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM
WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT PEAK MIXING. WEAK LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS RESULTING IN A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
AID IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. BY 12Z/TUESDAY,
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL PROGRESS EAST/SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS WILL
BE A NOTABLE THREAT FOR NEARLY ALL MTN CHAINS.
TUES WILL BE THE HIGH-IMPACT DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
100KT 500HPA JET CORE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH 80-
90KT WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING UP TO 650HPA FOR MOST AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM 50-60KTS, EXCLUDING THE FOUR CORNERS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IN FACT, WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH 70KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TO
PUT THIS INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE NAEFS SUGGESTS THESE SPEEDS WILL
BE 2.0 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM INDICATES
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE (40%-80% CHANCE)FOR HIGH WIND HEADLINES
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS, SACRAMENTO MTS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GILA. GIVEN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE OF
PAST EVENTS, THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CONCERN FOR POOR VISIBILITY
WITHIN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. IN THE MEANTIME, MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE
THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC
AND SYNOPTIC FORCING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
NORTH OF THE CO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 8500 FEET INITIALLY WILL
LIKELY LOWER 1000-1500 FEET TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND TRAVEL
CORRIDORS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
SOUTHERN NM, KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (10-15F FOR EASTERN
NM) SHOULD BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY (10-15F IN WESTERN NM).
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENERGY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SIXTY PCT OF THE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A CLOSED LOW OF SOME FASHION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THAN THE
MEAN. ANOTHER THIRTY PCT OFFERS AN OPEN WAVE THAT IS PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS THAN THE MEAN AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
FURTHER EAST. THE FINAL TEN PCT INDICATE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THAT WAS LIKELY A LOT TO DIGEST, BUT
IT APPEARS THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS THE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
COULD BE LESS PREVALENT WITH AN INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS VARIABILITY,
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ATTM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. VIRGA MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
THOUGH OVERALL, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, THUS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OVER AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES.
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
VIRGA/GUSTY WIND CHANCES. OVERALL, WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL BE COMMON, BUT VIRGA COULD LOCALLY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TREKKING ACROSS NM ARE TO BRING ELEVATED
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ACCOMPANIED BY A PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW 15%, WITH
VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 20% IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT,
AREAS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG WARNING TODAY EXTENDS THROUGH
8PM MDT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NM. FOR SUNDAY, HAVE
UPGRADED THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
MEETING RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. HAVE LEFT WEST CENTRAL NM (WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE) IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE OF HAVING 20MPH WINDS AND <15%
HUMIDITIES FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. WINDS GREATLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS, AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK AROUND 45-60 MPH COINCIDING WITH <15% RH VALUES, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN NM. ERC VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
AND RFTI VALUES EXCEED 5 FOR A MAJORITY OF THE STATE AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 60 33 68 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 24 57 23 63 / 10 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 29 57 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 23 61 22 68 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 58 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 24 62 24 69 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 28 62 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 35 65 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 31 62 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 67 24 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 30 70 30 76 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 51 23 56 / 10 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 59 33 63 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 55 31 61 / 0 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 26 45 26 51 / 0 5 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 50 23 57 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 25 59 25 65 / 0 5 0 0
MORA............................ 31 58 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 34 65 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 60 34 65 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 63 32 69 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 65 42 73 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 68 39 75 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 70 37 78 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 67 39 76 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 38 71 37 78 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 68 38 76 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 37 70 36 77 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 68 38 77 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 70 38 77 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 64 39 71 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 67 38 76 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 41 74 41 79 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 60 36 67 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 62 36 68 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 63 33 70 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 64 28 71 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 60 31 65 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 63 34 68 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 64 34 68 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 67 38 70 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 39 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 59 26 62 / 5 5 10 0
RATON........................... 30 64 26 68 / 0 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 66 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 63 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 63 31 66 / 10 5 10 0
ROY............................. 36 65 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 41 72 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 70 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 72 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 73 39 74 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 74 38 76 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 74 37 76 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 73 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 40 71 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-105-109-
123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-123.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ123>125.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...34
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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