522
FXUS65 KABQ 301721 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65
MPH AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR HIGHER MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE STRONG,
AND EVEN DAMAGING, ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST. EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH DUE TO THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL
TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO RISING CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH, WITH LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OTHER THAN A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND INTERMITTENT GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS
WILL BECOME LESS COMMON HAS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMONPLACE. STRONGER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NEAR VERY ISOLATED VIRGA
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, THE THREAT OF BLOWING
DUST IS LOW, BUT SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN DUST PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SEASONAL TODAY,
RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE CREST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE LOW IN
EASTERN CO, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE HIGHLANDS NEAR
THE CO BORDER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPS ON
MONDAY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE JET WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWESTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 170 KTS AT 300 MB LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-50 KT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, RISING TO 40-60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER ISOLATED AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT OVER THE CO-KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN PROJECTING 985
MB AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR REFERENCE, THE LOWEST RECORDED SURFACE
PRESSURE IN THIS AREA DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL IS JUST SHY OF
978 MB (WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/RESEARCH/ROTH/SLPRECORDS.HTML).
SUFFICE TO SAY, AN INTENSE SURFACE GRADIENT AND STRONG MOMENTUM
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE PROBABILITIES
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OF 60 MPH RISING (50-70%), PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A SHORTWAVE AND
EVENTUAL UPPER LOW MOVE INTO WY, A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ENTER
WESTERN NM LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING WILL KICK UP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES, BUT NO APPRECIABLE QPF IS PROJECTED; RATHER,
ACCELERATIONS TO WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE END RESULT AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH CLOUD BASES ENHANCES VIRGA/SHOWER
DOWNDRAFTS. A SIXTH PERIOD HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY, A FIRST FOR THIS FORECASTER IN 19 YEARS. THE DECISION
FOR SUCH AN EARLY WATCH IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE BIG CONCERNS OVER
BLOWING DUST, GIVEN MUCH OF NM IS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT,
AND RECENT WIND EVENTS HAVE BEEN VERY PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARDS TO
TRAVEL AND LOW VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO TAPER
TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
SLOW TO RELAX.
THE WY LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP INTO AZ, SHOVING STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN ZONES WINDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST REMAINING AREAS
STILL STAYING BREEZY, BUT REMARKABLY LESS IMPACTED THAT TUESDAY. A
FEW SCANT SHOWERS WOULD PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE AZ SHORTWAVE AS
IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN NM AND LIFTS INTO CO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP LOW IS THEN MODELED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THURSDAY, BEFORE CUTTING OFF FROM THE PARENT JET INTO FRIDAY
AND NEXT WEEKEND. SPECIFICS WITH THE MAIN (AND SECONDARY)
VORTICES WITHIN THE LARGER LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
OPTIMAL DYNAMICS AND FORCING, SO THERE ARE STILL MANY UNKNOWNS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN WILL INSTILL A STINT OF COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE INCLUDING
GEFS/ENS/GEPS CARRIES A MEAN POSITION OF THE LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR
FRONT WOULD ALSO HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY,
AS IT WOULD MERGE WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
YIELDING WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM ZONES. ACCUMULATED MEAN PRECIP VALUES ARE QUITE
HIGH, HOPEFULLY NOT TOO INFLATED BY THE GFS INGESTION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH VFR CIGS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT
LIKELY WON'T GET SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRODUCE BLOWING DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
GREATEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY, CREATING BREEZY WEST WINDS
AREAWIDE. IT WILL BE VERY DRY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM WAS
CANCELLED BECAUSE NEITHER WINDS NOR HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE STILL LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE SINCE THE PERIOD 20+ MPH WINDS WILL BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT (AND
THEREFORE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS) ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LEE
SIDE LOW. WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CREST OF THE ROCKIES INTENSIFIES. THERE IS EVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND LESS WINDY THAN TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
AT LEAST EASTERN AREAS. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE THERE IS EVEN A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SOAKING RAINFALL
EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 33 68 45 / 5 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 56 22 63 33 / 5 0 0 30
CUBA............................ 57 27 65 37 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 60 25 67 36 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 57 29 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 25 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 28 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 65 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 66 24 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 70 32 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 50 23 56 30 / 10 10 0 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 35 64 44 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 58 33 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 30 60 37 / 10 10 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 45 27 50 32 / 10 10 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 24 56 33 / 10 10 0 10
TAOS............................ 58 24 64 33 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 57 30 63 37 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 64 30 71 42 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 58 35 65 43 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 33 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 42 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 38 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 39 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 36 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 38 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 35 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 68 38 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 38 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 39 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 38 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 35 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 61 35 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 32 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 28 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 30 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 34 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 38 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 38 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 58 27 61 39 / 5 5 0 0
RATON........................... 63 27 67 39 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 64 28 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 30 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 63 32 66 45 / 5 10 0 0
ROY............................. 64 31 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 73 35 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 37 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 35 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 73 39 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 74 38 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 74 37 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 44 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 74 40 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 37 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ208-221>223-226-229-232-233-239-240.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-123.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ123>125.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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