130
FXUS65 KABQ 310532 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY
WHEN WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR HIGHER MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING. WINDS BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 45 TO
60 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING
VISIBILITY. ALONG WITH WINDS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES IF
ANY FIRE IGNITES. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE WEEK NEAR AVERAGE, BUT
FALL BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IN ADDITION, AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE STATE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE AND BACK SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THAT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-35MPH WILL BE COMMON BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS, NEAR THE AZ BORDER AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER. PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PROLIFIC AND
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
EVENTS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN DISTURBED LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MAKE FOR ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO HIT THE PEAKS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
TUESDAY AS A POTENT ~140KT 250MB JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD. IN
CONJUNCTURE, 700MB WINDS FLARE UP TO PEAK AROUND 50-60KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NM, ESPECIALLY CENTERED AROUND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING AND HEATING BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF
THE PACIFIC FRONT, PEAK MIXING IS LIKELY TO BRING DOWN THESE 700MB
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDELY 50-60MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE, WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 65-70MPH HAVING A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
OCCURRING VIA NBM PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW ALOFT, A
BEEFY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS AND
DEVELOP A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD INTO NM. CURRENT
FORECASTS PROJECT THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 983-985MB, WITH THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW SLP OBSERVED IN THIS AREA IN THE MONTH OF APRIL
BEING 978MB, PER WPC RECORDS. ALL FEATURES COMBINED, A HIGH WIND
EVENT IS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH NORTHWARD
TO THE CO BORDER, COVERING ALL THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, RATON PASS,
UNION COUNTY AND HARDING COUNTY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT, ADDITIONAL VIRGA SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND LOCALLY
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT HIGH. WITH THE OTHER HIGH WIND EVENTS WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR,
BLOWING DUST IS OF CONCERN AGAIN, WITH THERE BEING SLIGHT TO GOOD
CHANCES OF LOW TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND ESPECIALLY NEAR DUST PRONE AREAS SUCH AS
ROSWELL. WINDS TAPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR
CWA ON WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER RELAXES A BIT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERN NM ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH CURRENT QPF FORECASTS SHOW LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE
RAIN/SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING FROM THESE DISTURBANCES.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO FAVOR A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN TO END THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS
LIKELY TO CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND WOBBLE AROUND NM,
POTENTIALLY SIPHONING GULF MOISTURE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS ABOUT THE LOCATION,
STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE LOW, WHICH AFFECTS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION. THE GFS/GEFS ARE THE WETTER SOLUTIONS, TAPPING INTO
MORE MOISTURE, THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE POTENT WITH A POTENTIAL
BACKDOOR FRONT ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY, A LOT NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITHIN THE MODELS, BUT THE STATE MAY FINALLY SEE A RETURN OF
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING, PARTICULARLY FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF I-40. WINDS
WILL STRUGGLE TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONLY
TREND STRONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT
THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AS CLOUD BASES
GRADUALLY LOWER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FIRE GROWTH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WINDS TREND STRONGER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 65 MPH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE RGV. OTHERWISE,
HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE HIGHER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS
AND BACKDOOR FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 31 68 45 55 / 0 0 10 70
DULCE........................... 25 62 33 51 / 0 0 20 80
CUBA............................ 28 64 35 56 / 0 0 0 40
GALLUP.......................... 25 68 35 55 / 0 0 0 30
EL MORRO........................ 28 65 36 54 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 25 69 35 58 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 29 69 39 58 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 35 71 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 68 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 26 71 34 61 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 32 74 36 66 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 25 56 31 44 / 5 0 30 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 64 44 57 / 0 0 0 30
PECOS........................... 32 63 39 60 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 29 59 37 50 / 0 0 5 40
RED RIVER....................... 26 50 32 41 / 5 0 5 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 56 30 47 / 0 0 5 40
TAOS............................ 25 63 33 55 / 0 0 5 40
MORA............................ 30 63 36 57 / 0 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 32 71 42 65 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 34 64 42 60 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 32 68 41 65 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 71 50 67 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 74 48 69 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 76 46 71 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 38 74 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 37 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 37 74 47 70 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 36 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 76 41 72 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 39 70 49 66 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 73 48 68 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 41 79 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 66 44 61 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 36 68 45 64 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 70 35 67 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 64 38 62 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 67 43 66 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 67 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 69 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 64 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 62 39 62 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 29 67 39 65 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 30 69 40 66 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 65 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 33 67 44 72 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 32 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 75 48 79 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 75 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 37 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 80 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 39 74 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123>126.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ208-221>223-226>233-239-240.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ105-121-123.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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