350
FXUS65 KABQ 010611 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65
MPH AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST
ON TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY NEAR THE MOST DUST PRONE AREAS. HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOTORISTS. ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF ANY FIRES
THAT START. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY TO
WINDY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH LOW
ELEVATION RAINFALL AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
A 130KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OFF
OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NM TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AND STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH FORECAST DEEPEN TO NEAR 983MB OVER EAST CENTRAL CO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL HIT THE PEAKS OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED, BRINGING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE 130KT JET
AT 300MB ORIENTED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM BY 21Z
TUESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WINDY AND DUSTY AND
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL
WESTERN ZONES TO A WIND ADVISORY. WE'LL LIKELY REQUIRE A LONG-FUSED
DUST ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE AND WILL
ALSO LIKELY REQUIRE A FEW DUST STORM WARNINGS THAT WILL BE ISSUED
BASED ON OBSERVED DATA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING AND SOME OF THE ADVISED/WARNED ZONES IN THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, FOCUSING ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED 50KT 700MB WINDS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
FAVOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHERE
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WHAT
IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WOBBLE AROUND UT
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, INITIALLY SENDING AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY
LOBE INTO NORTHWEST NM THURSDAY, LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMES THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN WETTING PRECIP BEING OBSERVED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SIPHONING MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND EJECTING IT OVER THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FAVORS A SLOW WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NM
OVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY FAVORING EASTERN NM.
ANOTHER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NM SOMETIME SATURDAY.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT WOULD
LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD THE MOISTURE INFLUX BE
TIMED CORRECTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THIS REMAINS TO BE
IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST PACKAGES.
CURRENTLY, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >0.5IN OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN
48 HOURS SITS AROUND 50% FOR EASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER, LOWERING TO ABOUT 20% NEAR ALBUQUERQUE. IN
CONTRAST, NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE
FOR >0.1IN OF LIQUID PRECIP. IN TERMS OF 48 HOUR SNOWFALL, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, RATON PASS, AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE A
50-70% CHANCE OF >4IN, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WETTING PRECIP AND APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY, REMAINING THAT WAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY GET UP TO 15-25F BELOW AVERAGE AS THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
A POWERFUL JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION TUESDAY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FIRST INCREASE AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH LLWS AND TURBULENCE STRENGTHENING THRU
SUNRISE. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER 9AM
WITH GUSTS OF 35-50KT LIKELY AT MANY TERMINALS BY 1PM. WIDESPREAD
BLDU IS VERY LIKELY WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT DUST PRONE
LOCATIONS. KROW WILL SEE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL WIND EVENTS. AN AREA OF SHRA/SN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN NORTHWESTERN NM WHILE
WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
KFMN AND KGUP WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF IN
ALL AREAS AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED TO
BTWN 25-35KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS EASTERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HOLDING
LOW TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WINDY AND
DUSTY, WITH CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NM. ONLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, PARTIALLY DUE TO LOWER
WIND SPEEDS AND PARTIALLY DUE TO IMPROVED HUMIDITY. A TROUGHING
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL PEAK FRI/SAT AND FAVOR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NM. WARMING AND DRYING IS FORECAST
BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE DESERT SW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 54 24 52 / 20 40 5 30
DULCE........................... 33 50 17 49 / 40 60 10 20
CUBA............................ 36 54 20 47 / 5 20 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 36 54 17 48 / 0 20 20 40
EL MORRO........................ 36 53 21 46 / 5 10 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 36 58 18 50 / 0 10 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 39 58 24 48 / 0 0 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 44 64 29 53 / 0 0 5 10
DATIL........................... 40 59 25 48 / 0 0 10 20
RESERVE......................... 35 61 23 52 / 0 0 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 37 65 29 57 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 31 44 14 42 / 50 60 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 57 27 47 / 5 10 10 10
PECOS........................... 40 59 23 49 / 5 10 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 49 19 46 / 10 30 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 32 39 15 37 / 10 40 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 46 16 42 / 10 30 10 5
TAOS............................ 34 54 17 50 / 10 30 10 5
MORA............................ 37 56 22 49 / 5 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 43 65 26 55 / 5 10 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 43 60 25 49 / 5 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 63 25 53 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 66 35 55 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 68 33 57 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 70 32 59 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 67 32 57 / 0 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 44 73 30 60 / 0 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 47 68 32 57 / 0 0 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 71 29 59 / 0 0 5 10
CORRALES........................ 45 68 31 58 / 0 0 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 71 29 59 / 0 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 49 65 33 53 / 0 0 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 67 33 56 / 0 0 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 47 75 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 61 28 50 / 0 5 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 46 64 30 52 / 0 5 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 64 28 53 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 66 22 54 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 61 24 50 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 66 28 53 / 0 0 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 68 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 71 35 57 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 46 66 32 50 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 39 64 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 39 66 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 67 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 61 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 73 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 70 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 49 77 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 74 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 81 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 82 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 83 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 80 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 85 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 76 37 62 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 51 73 38 60 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ202-204>206-
209.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ207-
216>222-224-225-230>232-234>238-241.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ208-
210>215-223-226>229-233-239-240.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...42
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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