453
FXUS65 KABQ 011731 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, VERY LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND MOST WIDESPREAD DUST FOCUSING IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINDS DECREASE TOMORROW, BUT THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
- A DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BLOWING DUST, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
GREATEST RISK OF FIRE SPREAD IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL DUST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH WILL CREATE NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY IN DUST-
PRONE AREAS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY, BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. A DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE OCCURS LATE WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE LIKELY ON AT LEAST
MOUNTAIN ROUTES, WITH IMPACTS POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO I-25 AND
I-40, SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
POTENT 150KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35KT WERE COMMON AT 2AM ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THRU LATE MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO
NEAR 982DM OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND 700-500MB LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60KT. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE HIGHLIGHTS WERE TO ADD
NORTHWEST NM TO A WIND ADVISORY AND CUTOFF THE REMAINING AREAS WEST
OF THE CONT DIVIDE AT 6PM. A FEW OF THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY ALSO BE ALLOWED TO END AT 6PM. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY AND DUST STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WHERE
VISIBILITIES FALL BELOW 1/4 MILE. THE OTHER FOCUS TODAY WILL BE A
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A SHARP WEST/NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGES THRU WESTERN NM. MOST
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP LESS THAN 0.10" PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MTS WHERE 0.10-0.20" SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO 1-2" OF SNOW (>60% CHANCE). THE WEST/NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WHILE
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER EASTERN NM. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH COLDER WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
WITH 20S AND 30S FOR THE RGV AND EASTERN NM. FOLKS WITH EARLY SEASON
GARDENING INTERESTS SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND EXPOSED PIPES FROM A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NM
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY. IT WILL BE COLDER
AREAWIDE SO EVEN LIGHT BREEZES WILL FEEL VERY CHILLY COMPARED TO
THE RECENT WARMTH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10-15F BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM TO WEST OVER THE AREA AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS WESTERN NM. MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP LESS
THAN 0.05" BY SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
THE DRY, WINDY, AND DUSTY WEATHER PLAGUING THE STATE TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THAT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MID-WEEK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY THURSDAY. A
VORTICITY LOBE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS,
ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON
MOUNTAIN ROUTES THROUGH THE TUSAS AND CHUSKAS. THE BROAD TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SFC WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE, SURGING DEWPOINTS
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE 40S IN A MATTER OF HOURS IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP THIS
MOISTURE SURGE EASTWARD AS WELL AS PROVIDE A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARMER GULF AIRMASS AND THE
COLDER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DETERMINE HOW
LOW SNOW LEVELS DROP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SNOW LEVELS FOR FRIDAY ARE
IN THE 6-7KT RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE DAY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PEAK SAT. AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. MORNING THANKS TO A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD DROP SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS (FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD). THIS IS
THE TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SINCE BOTH I-25 AND I-40
IN EASTERN NM COULD EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW.
IT WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A
1028MB SFC HIGH IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING ALONG, WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STD DEV ABOVE AVERAGE, SO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HELP TO CREATE GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE EAST ALBUQUERQUE METRO
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS STRONG
MODEL AGREEMENT, THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WILL AFFECT THE STORM TOTAL RAIN AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITATION AT
ALBUQUERQUE SHOWS 0.1" AND ABOUT 0.4" AT TUCUMCARI, ILLUSTRATING
THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST WETTING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL FOCUS IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE 3-DAY TOTALS SHOULD EXCEED 1 FT.
WHILE BENEFICIAL, HIGH ELEVATION SNOTEL SITES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM EVEN IF HIGHER-
END SNOW TOTALS PAN OUT SINCE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO DRY ALL WINTER
AND SPRING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
DANGEROUS AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM, WITH HIGH WIND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50-60KTS, MVFR DOWN TO LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS
IN BLOWING DUST AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS (NORTH) FROM SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING DUST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, BUT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTS TO 35-50KTS IS IN EFFECT FOR KABQ AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KGUP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MUCH LESS WIND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM...
STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A
POTENT JET STREAM SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM. DEEP
MIXING, LOW SURFACE HUMIDITY, AND ERC VALUES IN THE 75TH-90TH
PERCENTILE RANGE WILL FOCUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND OVER ALL OF EASTERN NM. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A POWERFUL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY ALONG THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT, AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE). SNOW ACCUMS MAY AVERAGE A DUSTING TO
1" ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH UP TO 2" ABOVE CHAMA.
FARTHER EAST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING WITH DECREASING WINDS. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ENTER WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RGV (30-50% CHANCE). A FEW
HOURS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER RGV WHERE STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM FROM TODAY.
THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN
WITH INCREASING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF NM
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP
(>0.10") ARE OVER 50% FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCES FOR
>0.25" IS MORE THAN 60% ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP
WITH GREEN-UP AS WE MOVE INTO QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 23 52 29 / 40 5 20 30
DULCE........................... 49 12 49 19 / 60 10 10 50
CUBA............................ 53 17 47 20 / 30 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 52 15 48 18 / 20 20 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 52 20 46 20 / 10 30 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 17 50 18 / 10 30 30 20
QUEMADO......................... 57 23 48 19 / 10 20 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 62 28 53 24 / 0 10 20 0
DATIL........................... 57 25 48 21 / 5 10 20 10
RESERVE......................... 61 23 52 18 / 0 5 30 5
GLENWOOD........................ 65 30 57 24 / 0 5 20 5
CHAMA........................... 41 10 42 19 / 60 20 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 23 47 27 / 20 20 10 20
PECOS........................... 59 22 48 25 / 20 20 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 18 46 24 / 30 20 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 12 41 19 / 40 30 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 13 42 16 / 30 30 5 20
TAOS............................ 54 15 49 20 / 30 20 5 20
MORA............................ 57 20 48 21 / 20 30 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 63 23 54 26 / 20 20 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 57 22 50 26 / 20 20 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 24 53 26 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 30 54 33 / 5 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 32 55 31 / 0 10 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 31 58 30 / 0 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 31 55 31 / 0 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 73 31 60 26 / 0 10 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 29 57 31 / 5 10 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 30 58 26 / 0 10 10 5
CORRALES........................ 68 30 57 30 / 0 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 31 58 27 / 0 10 10 5
PLACITAS........................ 63 28 53 32 / 5 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 30 56 31 / 0 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 74 35 63 30 / 0 5 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 24 48 26 / 10 20 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 63 28 51 27 / 10 20 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 24 52 25 / 5 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 22 53 19 / 5 10 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 23 49 22 / 5 20 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 26 52 24 / 5 10 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 27 52 24 / 0 5 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 35 56 31 / 0 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 33 49 30 / 0 5 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 21 50 24 / 0 5 5 5
RATON........................... 63 22 54 25 / 5 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 66 24 55 24 / 0 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 22 51 22 / 5 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 72 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 68 27 55 28 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 77 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 33 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 35 63 35 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 81 38 64 38 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 82 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 43 70 39 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 75 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 37 59 31 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201>206-209.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ207-216>222-
224-225-230>232-234>238-241.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ208-210>215-
223-226>229-233-239-240.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page