445
FXUS65 KABQ 012145
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 334 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
- STRONG WIND GUSTS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
- A DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION.
- COLD, WITH NEAR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE STATE WILL BE 15
TO 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
STRONG WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS ON WEDESDAY WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WINTER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE TUSAS AND SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY TO
FALL. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN SOME BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
AND USHER IN A COLD AIRMASS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO STABILIZE AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A 150KT
JET STREAM, ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULTING IN STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. ALTHOUGH, THE HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ROUGHLY 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS FROM OVER SOCAL ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHUSKAS, TUSAS
AND POTENTIALLY THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND MAY CREATE MORE BLOWING DUST NEAR
ROSWELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND DIG SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER INTO THE
REGION. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE H5 LOW PRESSURE CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM
SKIRTING ALONG THE US-MEXICO BORDER WHILE IT MEANDERS EAST INTO NEW
MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATH, THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST SPEED MAXES
ALOFT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ALONG THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT EASTERN AREAS IN CHAVES COUNTY WHERE 700MB WINDS OF 50
KTS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH MODEL PWATS
OF ABOUT HALF AN INCH FOR FRIDAY (WITHIN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, RAINFALL AND
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UP IN TERMS OF WINTER IMPACTS FOR
THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST AREAS ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. AREAS SUCH AS RATON PASS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
UNION COUNTY HAVE A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RATON
PASS AND THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRES LOOK TO HAVE ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW RELATED WINTER IMPACTS, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO PLUMMET WITH NEAR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 35
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI LOOK TO APPROACH OR
EVEN BREAK RECORDS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 BELOW NORMAL.
THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN THEN STABILIZES
AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES START TO RISE BACK UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
DANGEROUS AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM, WITH HIGH WIND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50-60KTS, MVFR DOWN TO LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS
IN BLOWING DUST AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS (NORTH) FROM SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING DUST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, BUT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTS TO 35-50KTS IS IN EFFECT FOR KABQ AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KGUP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MUCH LESS WIND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES FROM SOCAL THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOWER RGV AND EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 51 29 47 / 10 20 50 40
DULCE........................... 15 48 19 41 / 10 10 50 50
CUBA............................ 20 46 20 43 / 40 20 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 18 48 18 44 / 30 50 40 20
EL MORRO........................ 20 46 20 42 / 40 40 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 19 50 17 45 / 40 30 30 5
QUEMADO......................... 23 48 19 44 / 30 40 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 29 53 24 50 / 10 10 5 0
DATIL........................... 24 49 21 46 / 30 20 5 5
RESERVE......................... 24 53 18 49 / 20 30 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 31 57 24 53 / 10 20 5 5
CHAMA........................... 12 42 18 35 / 40 10 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 47 26 44 / 40 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 22 49 24 45 / 30 10 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 46 23 40 / 30 0 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 12 36 17 33 / 50 5 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 42 16 38 / 50 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 17 49 20 44 / 30 0 10 10
MORA............................ 20 48 20 46 / 40 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 24 54 25 50 / 30 5 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 24 50 25 45 / 30 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 53 24 48 / 30 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 54 32 51 / 20 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 56 31 53 / 20 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 31 58 29 55 / 20 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 55 31 54 / 20 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 31 59 27 57 / 20 20 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 57 31 54 / 20 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 58 26 56 / 20 20 10 0
CORRALES........................ 31 57 31 54 / 20 20 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 58 28 56 / 20 20 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 53 31 51 / 20 10 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 56 31 53 / 20 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 63 30 58 / 10 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 49 25 47 / 20 20 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 27 51 26 49 / 20 20 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 52 23 50 / 20 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 54 21 51 / 10 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 50 22 48 / 10 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 53 24 50 / 10 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 54 25 51 / 5 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 57 31 54 / 5 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 33 49 30 49 / 5 10 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 23 51 24 49 / 5 0 5 5
RATON........................... 24 55 24 51 / 10 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 25 56 25 54 / 5 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 52 23 49 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 60 32 58 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 29 57 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 65 34 62 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 65 35 63 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 64 38 63 / 5 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 39 65 38 64 / 5 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 64 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 69 40 68 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 38 61 32 61 / 0 5 0 0
ELK............................. 38 58 31 57 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201>206-209.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ207-208-
210>241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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