724
FXUS65 KABQ 021726 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FAVORED FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEASTERN NM HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
SANDIA CREST, WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE CAPTURED THIS PHENOMENA VERY WELL, STILL LOCKING INTO THE
EAST WINDS PUSHING THROUGH THE TIJERAS CANYON WINNING OUT NEAR 4AM
AND ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA. THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TO AND JUST PAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER THIS
MORNING BRINGING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ALONG THE DIVIDE
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BECOME
OUTFLOW DRIVEN INTO THE EVENING, MIGRATING BACK EAST INTO THE MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM LOS ALAMOS AND SANTA FE TO
ALBUQUERQUE AND DOWN TO SOCORRO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND LIGHTNING WILL THREATEN TO DISRUPT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL FILL THROUGH THE DAY, REPLACED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF STATE WITH LITTLE TIME FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SCOUR IT OUT. INSTEAD, ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR INITIATION
OVER THE WESTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL AGAIN MIGRATE MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL SWATH
OF THE STATE, BUT WITH FASTER AND MORE PREDICTABLE STORM MOTIONS
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BODE WELL WITH LESSENING
ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT STORMS WILL HAVE OVER RECENT BURN SCARS,
INCLUDING THE SCARS NEAR RUIDOSO. BUT A CLOSE EYE WILL STILL BE
NEEDED IN CASE STORMS ANCHOR TO THE TERRAIN. CONDITIONS AGAIN SLOWLY
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MULTI-HAZARD SETUP APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN CA INTO CENTRAL AZ. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS, STOUT 700MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS MAY CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE GILA REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE ON THIS OCCURRING AS THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO PAINT THIS PICTURE, THOUGH THE NAM HAS COME IN WITH A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW, KEEPING THOSE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. IN ANY CASE, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH 30-40MPH GUSTS
HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING. IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN NM,
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY ECLIPSING 0.8", WHICH WOULD EXCEED
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALLOWS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AS SBCAPE VALUES RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG AND 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR COULD EXCEED 40-50KTS. SHOULD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FORM, SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN AND AROUND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS FOR THE LOCATION, AS PARAMETERS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PAINT A BETTER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER THREAT FOR SUNDAY IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND HPCC BURN SCAR, HOWEVER THE THREAT SHOULD THANKFULLY
BE LIMITED BY FASTER STORM MOTION, SO IT WOULD NEED MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS TO CREATE A TRUE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SOMETHING THAT
HINDERS CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOIST SECTOR. THE NAM HAS DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING
40F AS FAR WEST AS SOCORRO, WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLING TO SEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WESTERN NM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES AND INTERACTS WITH A
POTENTIAL REX BLOCK OVER OUR AREA. THE FAVORED SETUP CURRENTLY IS
STORMS RETURNING TO EASTERN NM WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
WHILE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POTENTIALLY BEGINS IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL TRY AND TOY WITH A
DRYLINE SETUP IN EASTERN NM, WHICH COULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND MAINLY SET IT UP IN THE TX PANHANDLE. TUESDAY SETS UP
SIMILAR, THOUGH 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM, LIMITING SNOW TO THE
TALLEST PEAKS ONLY. CONFIDENCE ONLY CONTINUES TO DECREASE MOVING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO
NOT HANDLE THIS MESSY REX BLOCK SETUP WELL. SHOULD THE LOW CONTINUE
TO SPIN IN AND AROUND NM, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE. A PART OF THIS
FORECAST THAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5-
15F BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY, EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LATE THIS MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ERODING AND/OR LIFTING
ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT KGUP, KSAF, KLVS AND
KABQ/KAEG LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS ARE LIKELY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUSH
BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ADVANCING FURTHER ACROSS
NM MONDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF WHERE THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER MOISTURE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER, DESPITE A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND LIGHTER PREVAILING WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 46 76 49 / 5 10 20 30
DULCE........................... 70 37 72 34 / 20 10 20 30
CUBA............................ 65 38 68 41 / 50 30 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 70 40 71 39 / 20 20 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 65 38 66 40 / 60 30 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 67 38 69 37 / 60 30 50 20
QUEMADO......................... 67 38 67 41 / 60 20 60 20
MAGDALENA....................... 65 41 67 44 / 50 40 30 40
DATIL........................... 65 37 65 40 / 80 50 50 30
RESERVE......................... 77 41 73 35 / 30 20 60 10
GLENWOOD........................ 81 47 78 42 / 10 10 30 10
CHAMA........................... 61 33 64 36 / 30 20 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 39 66 42 / 70 20 20 20
PECOS........................... 57 36 66 40 / 60 20 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 34 66 36 / 30 10 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 50 29 56 32 / 40 20 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 31 61 30 / 50 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 63 34 68 37 / 40 20 30 10
MORA............................ 52 33 65 37 / 70 30 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 68 40 73 43 / 40 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 39 67 42 / 50 30 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 40 71 43 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 45 73 47 / 50 50 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 46 74 48 / 40 50 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 47 76 49 / 50 50 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 45 75 48 / 40 50 20 30
BELEN........................... 74 46 76 47 / 30 50 20 40
BERNALILLO...................... 73 44 76 46 / 40 50 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 46 76 46 / 40 50 30 40
CORRALES........................ 73 45 76 47 / 40 50 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 46 76 47 / 40 50 20 40
PLACITAS........................ 68 43 71 45 / 50 50 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 44 75 47 / 40 50 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 75 47 77 49 / 50 50 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 39 67 42 / 50 50 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 65 40 69 43 / 40 50 40 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 38 69 40 / 30 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 38 71 38 / 30 30 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 37 65 40 / 20 30 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 39 68 41 / 20 40 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 41 68 41 / 20 30 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 46 70 47 / 20 30 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 55 41 63 42 / 30 40 70 30
CAPULIN......................... 57 35 66 39 / 10 5 5 5
RATON........................... 61 35 71 38 / 10 5 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 63 36 71 38 / 20 5 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 36 67 39 / 40 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 38 71 43 / 10 5 0 0
ROY............................. 61 39 68 42 / 20 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 66 42 75 47 / 20 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 42 71 45 / 10 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 42 73 47 / 10 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 64 41 73 44 / 10 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 65 41 74 45 / 10 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 44 73 47 / 10 5 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 68 48 76 50 / 10 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 60 44 72 45 / 10 20 40 20
ELK............................. 57 42 71 44 / 10 10 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11
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