350
FXUS65 KABQ 022127
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 231 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FAVORED FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE COMING WORK WEEK.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT SATURDAY FROM NOON
UNTIL 9 PM MDT, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN FOR MORE OF THE BURN SCARS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
AGAIN MONDAY.
- A FEW HOURS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PROGRESSED WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND HAS SUPPLIED SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FUEL A
ROUND OF SLOW MOVING GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING AND GIVEN A LACK OF STRONG
FORCING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOLLOW A NORMAL NOCTURNAL
DOWNTREND. THE WEAK PACIFIC LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ IS FORECAST TO FILL
AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY INTO OUR AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF LATE DAY CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY VS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON PLACEMENT OF QPF OVER THE SACRAMENTO
COMPLEX OF BURN SCARS NEAR RUIDOSO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
CHANCES FOR OFF-SCAR FLASH FLOODING ARE VERY LOW, THE CHANCE FOR
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IS MODERATE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION OF
10MPH OR SO. WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SACRAMENTO
COMPLEX, INCLUDING RUIDOSO FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
MORE POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SPREAD STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AREA OF NM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
ROUND OF CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTH UP THE RGV AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRAWING RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH NM WITH SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
JETSTREAM MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL JOG NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT, STEERING THE NOSE OF A DRYSLOT OVER THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA, AND SHIFTING THE FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE RICH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM 0.25-1.00" ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS). THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL PROBABLY RETURN SUNDAY, AT LEAST BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG
THE CO/NM BORDER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODELS
DIFFER ON THE DIRECTION IT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST,
AND WHEN. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PROBABLY DROP
NEAR 6200 FEET LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST BY
THEN, SO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
ABOVE 9000 FEET AND FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, AND WORK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDED BY A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, AND A RETURN FLOW OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LATE THIS MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ERODING AND/OR LIFTING
ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT KGUP, KSAF, KLVS AND
KABQ/KAEG LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS ARE LIKELY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE TRENDING UP THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER RGV AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, KEEPING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
GOING, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
HUMIDITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER RGV MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS, BUT OTHERWISE THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW TO NON-EXISTENT NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 76 48 72 / 5 20 40 90
DULCE........................... 33 71 34 68 / 10 40 40 90
CUBA............................ 36 67 40 65 / 30 30 30 80
GALLUP.......................... 35 71 37 67 / 10 30 30 70
EL MORRO........................ 37 66 39 63 / 20 40 30 60
GRANTS.......................... 35 69 36 65 / 20 40 30 60
QUEMADO......................... 37 68 40 66 / 30 50 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 40 67 44 67 / 40 50 40 60
DATIL........................... 38 64 39 64 / 40 50 40 50
RESERVE......................... 36 71 35 71 / 10 30 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 41 76 41 75 / 5 30 10 10
CHAMA........................... 32 65 34 62 / 20 40 40 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 67 44 62 / 20 30 30 90
PECOS........................... 37 66 40 62 / 20 30 30 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 66 37 63 / 10 30 30 80
RED RIVER....................... 30 56 31 53 / 20 50 40 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 60 30 57 / 30 40 30 80
TAOS............................ 32 69 35 64 / 20 30 20 80
MORA............................ 33 63 35 60 / 30 40 20 90
ESPANOLA........................ 40 74 43 71 / 20 20 20 80
SANTA FE........................ 40 67 43 65 / 20 30 30 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 71 43 68 / 20 30 20 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 72 50 70 / 30 30 30 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 74 48 72 / 30 30 30 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 76 48 75 / 30 30 30 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 74 49 72 / 30 20 30 80
BELEN........................... 42 76 46 75 / 30 30 30 70
BERNALILLO...................... 43 75 47 72 / 30 20 30 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 76 45 74 / 40 30 30 70
CORRALES........................ 44 75 48 74 / 30 20 30 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 75 46 74 / 40 30 30 70
PLACITAS........................ 44 72 47 68 / 30 30 30 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 74 48 72 / 30 20 30 80
SOCORRO......................... 46 75 48 77 / 40 40 40 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 66 42 64 / 30 30 30 90
TIJERAS......................... 40 69 44 66 / 30 30 40 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 69 40 66 / 20 30 30 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 71 37 67 / 20 30 30 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 66 40 60 / 20 30 20 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 68 41 67 / 40 40 40 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 38 67 41 67 / 30 40 40 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 69 45 70 / 30 40 40 80
RUIDOSO......................... 40 62 42 63 / 30 40 50 80
CAPULIN......................... 34 67 40 63 / 5 10 10 40
RATON........................... 34 72 37 67 / 10 20 10 60
SPRINGER........................ 35 72 38 67 / 10 20 10 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 67 39 61 / 10 30 20 80
CLAYTON......................... 39 73 45 71 / 0 5 5 20
ROY............................. 38 69 41 66 / 5 10 10 60
CONCHAS......................... 42 76 47 73 / 5 5 10 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 73 45 68 / 5 10 10 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 41 76 47 72 / 0 0 5 40
CLOVIS.......................... 44 74 47 71 / 0 0 10 30
PORTALES........................ 42 75 46 73 / 5 0 10 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 75 46 73 / 5 5 10 60
ROSWELL......................... 49 78 52 77 / 10 10 20 60
PICACHO......................... 42 71 45 72 / 10 20 30 80
ELK............................. 40 69 42 72 / 10 20 40 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11
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