951
FXUS65 KABQ 031720 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FAVORED FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE COMING WORK WEEK.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT SATURDAY FROM NOON
UNTIL 9 PM MDT, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN FOR MORE OF THE BURN SCARS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, AND AGAIN
MONDAY.
- A FEW HOURS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING, WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE, FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN, BEFORE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 10-15 MPH.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM FOR AREAS WITHIN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE BURN SCARS, INCLUDING RUIDOSO. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING STORMS TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK VORT MAX WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM, IN PARTICULAR, IS QUITE BULLISH ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE AMOUNTS ARE OVERDONE. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, BUT
SHOULD BE WEAKER IN INTENSITY.
WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WEAKENS AND CROSSES NM TODAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE DIG SOUTHWARD OVER CA. OVERNIGHT, IT SHOULD CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW OVER SOCAL AND ON SUNDAY, IT WILL INCH EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
AZ. AS THIS OCCURS, SEVERAL THINGS WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NM SUNDAY. 1.
GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NM IN STIFF SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
2. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NM, BUT WILL BE DRIER. 3. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE AND 4. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. WHILE CAPE VALUES AREN'T
TERRIBLE EXCITING - GENERALLY <800 J/KG FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE,
BULK SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 50KT. THEREFORE, WHILE SEVERAL STRONG STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM, THE FAVORED SPOT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA - OR
NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CONVECTION IS POISED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STOUT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINES FOR AN ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SBCAPE VALUES
STILL HOVERING AROUND 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF
40-50KTS SUPPORT EVENING TO OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH A FAVORED LOCATION BEING ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WHILE STABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYERS LIMIT ANY
STRONGER STORMS, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS. WITH REGARD TO BURN SCAR COMPLEXES, THE
RUIDOSO AREA FACES THE THREAT OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, SO EVEN WITH FASTER STORM MOTION (20-30MPH), HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. THE HPCC
AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN WHETHER STORMS WILL BE MORE
MATURE (I.E. HIGHER RAINFALL RATES) OR MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THE THREAT OF BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING FOR HPCC (QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE), IT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS, AND ESPECIALLY REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS. ONE LAST ITEM OF NOTE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE
LIKELY PRESENCE OF A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND THROUGH ABQ AND SANTA
FE. MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A PRESSURE AND
MOISTURE GRADIENT PUSHING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40-50MPH.
AS THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO REBOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY. A
DRYLINE BEGINS TO FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG, SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR REACHING 50-60KTS, AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PEAKING NEAR 7 C/KM SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
THERE ALSO IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A LOW THREAT FOR BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOODING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORM MOTION
WILL BE FAST AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS
MOMENT. LOW CHANCES ARE ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AWAY FROM BURN SCARS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AS WELL AS SATURATED SOILS BEING IN PLACE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW (THE CATALYST FOR MUCH OF THE ABOVE ACTION)
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE OF OCCURRING MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST
(PWATS REMAINING AROUND 0.5", NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MAY), AND AS
THE LOW PASSES OVER THE STATE, WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
700MB TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SNOW AS LOW AS 9,000FT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLICK ROADS AT THIS MOMENT. A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY INDUCE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISO/SCT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND VERY
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
TODAY ARE KGUP AND KAEG. LOW TO NO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT KTCC OR KROW TODAY. MOISTURE WILL TREND UP OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF VFR CIGS AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HUMIDITY AND
BRING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM SUNDAY, BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 15
PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, 1-3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MONDAY, BUT EASTERN NM WILL STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. STRONGEST WINDS,
OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY, WILL COME WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 77 49 69 42 / 20 30 80 90
DULCE........................... 72 36 67 34 / 30 30 90 90
CUBA............................ 69 40 65 36 / 20 20 70 90
GALLUP.......................... 70 39 65 30 / 40 20 60 70
EL MORRO........................ 65 40 63 33 / 50 30 50 60
GRANTS.......................... 67 37 67 31 / 50 30 60 60
QUEMADO......................... 67 40 66 32 / 60 20 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 67 45 66 40 / 40 40 40 30
DATIL........................... 64 40 64 35 / 60 40 20 30
RESERVE......................... 71 34 69 30 / 50 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 77 39 72 33 / 40 20 10 20
CHAMA........................... 65 35 61 33 / 40 30 90 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 45 60 43 / 30 20 90 90
PECOS........................... 68 40 60 40 / 30 30 90 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 38 63 38 / 30 20 90 90
RED RIVER....................... 56 31 51 32 / 50 30 90 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 60 29 54 31 / 50 30 90 90
TAOS............................ 69 33 64 35 / 30 20 90 90
MORA............................ 64 35 58 36 / 50 30 100 100
ESPANOLA........................ 74 44 70 43 / 20 20 90 90
SANTA FE........................ 68 44 63 43 / 30 30 90 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 43 67 42 / 20 20 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 51 69 49 / 20 40 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 50 70 46 / 20 40 70 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 49 72 45 / 20 40 70 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 49 71 47 / 20 30 70 70
BELEN........................... 76 45 74 42 / 20 40 60 60
BERNALILLO...................... 75 47 72 46 / 20 30 80 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 45 73 41 / 20 40 70 70
CORRALES........................ 76 47 72 46 / 20 30 80 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 45 73 43 / 20 40 60 60
PLACITAS........................ 72 48 68 47 / 20 30 80 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 48 72 47 / 20 30 80 80
SOCORRO......................... 77 49 76 45 / 30 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 43 63 42 / 30 40 80 80
TIJERAS......................... 69 45 66 43 / 30 40 80 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 68 41 66 39 / 40 30 90 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 36 68 36 / 40 30 90 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 39 60 38 / 50 30 90 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 42 66 39 / 40 30 70 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 41 65 39 / 40 30 80 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 46 71 44 / 40 30 80 70
RUIDOSO......................... 62 42 61 41 / 50 40 80 70
CAPULIN......................... 68 39 63 37 / 20 20 50 70
RATON........................... 72 39 65 38 / 20 20 60 70
SPRINGER........................ 73 38 66 40 / 20 30 70 90
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 39 58 39 / 30 30 90 100
CLAYTON......................... 73 44 70 44 / 5 5 30 50
ROY............................. 69 41 64 42 / 5 10 70 90
CONCHAS......................... 76 46 71 47 / 5 5 70 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 72 45 66 45 / 10 5 90 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 46 71 47 / 0 0 50 80
CLOVIS.......................... 74 47 70 49 / 0 0 40 80
PORTALES........................ 74 46 70 48 / 0 5 40 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 74 47 69 48 / 0 5 70 90
ROSWELL......................... 78 50 73 54 / 5 10 80 80
PICACHO......................... 73 45 68 44 / 20 20 80 80
ELK............................. 71 42 68 41 / 30 30 80 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11
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