490
FXUS65 KABQ 032104
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
MDT FOR THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE WEAK PACIFIC LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN AZ YESTERDAY HAS
OPENED UP AND IS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PROVIDING A LITTLE ADDED FORCING AND LEADING TO
AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LACKING, SO GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WILL
BE THE RULE TODAY WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT THREAT BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN/NEAR RUIDOSO GOING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO HIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY DEEPENING AND DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST, MOVES EAST FROM SOCAL AND INTO AZ. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT MOST NOTABLE ACROSS EASTERN
NM WHERE BOTH A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS WILL
RESIDE. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG.
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THAT EVENT, WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1-2", ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
SPOTTY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 4" WILL MATERIALIZE. SOME AREAS, SUCH
AS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN FORT SUMNER AND BROADVIEW,
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY SATURATED AND WILL REQUIRE LESS RAIN TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TAKES FRONT AND
CENTER, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM, THANKS TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-60KTS AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE,
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PEAKS
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVE INTO THE STATE. THE
MOST NOTABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS, WHERE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE LIKELY.
WE'RE TALKING GENERALLY ABOVE 10KFT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A COMPLEX SET-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. MEANWHILE, A DRY SLOT
WILL INVADE THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY
IN THE MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY BAND OF QPF PIVOTING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. BY 18Z/MON, THIS DRIER AIR WILL INVADE
THE ENTIRE ERN PLAINS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER
TROUGH AND WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE NM BOOTHEEL BY 00Z/TUES.
BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, STOUT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50-60KT RANGE PER THE SREF GUIDANCE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 500-
750 J/KG, STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LONGER-
LIVED UPDRAFTS. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES, CI SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX PIVOTS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NM.
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO
EAST CENTRAL NM. BY 18Z/TUE, THE DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AS IT STARTS TO BE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN UPR LOW.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON TUE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THIS ALIGNS RATHER WELL WITH THE WPC DAY 3 ERO PRODUCT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A 6-12 HOUR GAP IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) THAT ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. THE LREF MEAN QPF SUGGESTS 0.50 TO
1.15 INCH FROM 00Z/TUE THROUGH 00Z/WED, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE
EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, WITH 1-2 INCHES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALES
THAT ALREADY HAVE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE INITIAL ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD FOR MON-
TUE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE NORTHERN MTNS, WHERE ANOTHER 3-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE WSSI INDICATES ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
RELEGATED TO ROUTES ALONG/NEAR MOUNTAIN PASSES.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
FOR THURSDAY WITH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION RELEGATED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISO/SCT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND VERY
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
TODAY ARE KGUP AND KAEG. LOW TO NO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT KTCC OR KROW TODAY. MOISTURE WILL TREND UP OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF VFR CIGS AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND MOVE OVER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING HIGHER HUMIDITY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY DUE TO STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW, BUT OTHERWISE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 70 42 60 / 20 60 70 80
DULCE........................... 34 65 36 57 / 20 80 80 80
CUBA............................ 39 63 37 57 / 20 40 80 60
GALLUP.......................... 36 66 32 56 / 40 40 70 60
EL MORRO........................ 39 63 33 53 / 40 40 70 60
GRANTS.......................... 35 66 33 59 / 40 40 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 39 65 33 55 / 30 20 40 50
MAGDALENA....................... 45 67 38 60 / 40 30 30 20
DATIL........................... 40 63 33 56 / 50 30 30 30
RESERVE......................... 33 67 32 62 / 20 20 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 38 72 35 66 / 10 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 34 60 34 51 / 30 70 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 62 42 55 / 20 70 80 60
PECOS........................... 40 59 40 56 / 30 80 90 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 61 37 54 / 20 60 80 80
RED RIVER....................... 32 52 32 44 / 30 70 90 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 55 32 51 / 20 80 100 80
TAOS............................ 34 64 36 58 / 20 60 70 80
MORA............................ 35 57 36 55 / 20 80 100 80
ESPANOLA........................ 44 70 43 64 / 20 50 60 60
SANTA FE........................ 44 63 42 57 / 20 70 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 66 43 62 / 20 70 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 69 47 64 / 30 60 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 70 46 65 / 30 50 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 73 45 67 / 30 50 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 71 46 66 / 20 50 50 30
BELEN........................... 46 74 43 68 / 30 40 30 10
BERNALILLO...................... 48 72 46 67 / 20 60 50 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 45 74 43 67 / 30 40 30 20
CORRALES........................ 47 72 46 67 / 20 60 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 74 44 67 / 30 40 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 49 68 46 62 / 30 60 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 71 46 66 / 20 60 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 50 76 45 70 / 40 20 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 63 40 59 / 30 70 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 45 66 42 60 / 30 70 60 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 65 40 61 / 30 60 60 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 66 38 62 / 30 60 60 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 61 38 59 / 30 80 70 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 66 40 61 / 30 40 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 67 39 61 / 30 40 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 70 44 65 / 30 50 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 42 62 40 59 / 40 70 60 30
CAPULIN......................... 40 62 39 53 / 20 60 80 90
RATON........................... 37 66 40 59 / 20 70 80 80
SPRINGER........................ 38 66 42 60 / 20 70 90 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 60 40 59 / 20 80 90 70
CLAYTON......................... 45 70 46 59 / 10 30 70 90
ROY............................. 42 64 43 59 / 10 60 90 90
CONCHAS......................... 46 71 48 67 / 5 60 90 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 69 47 64 / 5 60 90 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 47 73 49 67 / 5 40 80 80
CLOVIS.......................... 47 72 50 69 / 5 30 80 80
PORTALES........................ 46 73 50 71 / 5 30 80 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 72 50 70 / 5 60 90 50
ROSWELL......................... 53 77 54 77 / 10 70 70 30
PICACHO......................... 46 69 46 70 / 20 70 80 20
ELK............................. 43 67 42 69 / 30 70 70 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ214-215-223-226>239.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...11
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