283
FXUS65 KABQ 050605 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A 556DAM 500MB LOW IS ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOCAL AND BOTH
SPREADING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND PULLING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE STATE. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING A
ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS STILL INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, PORTIONS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND LINCOLN COUNTY, WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AND IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-55KTS RESIDES. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FOCUS MORE OVER EASTERN
NM OVERNIGHT, WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM MX LATE MONDAY AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM THAT WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NM. BY THAT TIME, GROUNDS WILL BE COMPLETELY
SATURATED AND WILL TAKE MUCH LESS RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM.
MEANWHILE, SNOW WILL BE FLYING IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS THE PEAKS. A LONG DURATION WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS TO COVER THIS EVENT AND AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IN FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN-COOLED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS AS THE
UPPER LOW WOBBLES NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NM. TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST WELL BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCUMULATE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ABOVE
9KFT. THE FILLING UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SLOWLY ON
WED/THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT
WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE SCOURING. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING CLOSER TO AVERAGE MOST AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FOCUSING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
FARTHER WEST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
TURN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO AT KSAF. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY, CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A SLOW WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FOCUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 61 38 60 / 70 80 40 60
DULCE........................... 35 60 28 53 / 60 90 40 80
CUBA............................ 38 57 32 52 / 70 70 40 80
GALLUP.......................... 33 56 25 58 / 50 80 30 70
EL MORRO........................ 33 54 30 53 / 50 70 40 70
GRANTS.......................... 34 59 27 57 / 50 50 40 70
QUEMADO......................... 33 56 30 55 / 30 50 30 70
MAGDALENA....................... 40 59 35 59 / 20 30 40 80
DATIL........................... 34 55 31 55 / 30 50 30 70
RESERVE......................... 33 61 27 58 / 40 40 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 37 65 32 62 / 40 40 20 60
CHAMA........................... 34 53 28 47 / 70 90 50 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 56 37 47 / 80 80 60 90
PECOS........................... 40 56 35 50 / 90 80 70 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 56 33 47 / 90 90 70 100
RED RIVER....................... 32 45 29 38 / 90 90 70 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 50 27 44 / 90 90 80 100
TAOS............................ 36 58 30 50 / 80 90 60 90
MORA............................ 35 53 31 48 / 90 90 80 100
ESPANOLA........................ 42 64 38 54 / 70 70 60 90
SANTA FE........................ 42 59 38 50 / 70 80 60 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 62 38 54 / 70 70 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 65 44 58 / 60 40 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 66 42 60 / 50 30 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 47 68 42 63 / 40 30 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 66 43 60 / 40 40 50 70
BELEN........................... 45 68 40 64 / 30 20 50 70
BERNALILLO...................... 47 68 42 61 / 50 40 50 70
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 45 68 39 63 / 40 30 40 70
CORRALES........................ 47 68 42 62 / 50 40 50 70
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 68 40 63 / 40 30 40 70
PLACITAS........................ 46 64 41 56 / 60 40 60 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 66 43 60 / 40 40 50 70
SOCORRO......................... 46 70 42 68 / 10 20 40 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 59 36 52 / 80 50 50 80
TIJERAS......................... 43 61 37 55 / 70 40 50 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 62 35 55 / 80 50 60 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 63 32 56 / 70 50 60 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 59 33 51 / 80 60 70 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 61 34 57 / 50 30 60 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 61 34 57 / 50 30 60 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 67 39 62 / 40 20 70 50
RUIDOSO......................... 40 61 35 55 / 60 20 70 50
CAPULIN......................... 38 48 35 45 / 90 90 90 100
RATON........................... 40 56 35 50 / 90 90 80 100
SPRINGER........................ 42 56 35 50 / 90 90 80 100
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 56 35 51 / 90 90 80 90
CLAYTON......................... 46 52 43 54 / 80 100 90 100
ROY............................. 42 56 38 53 / 90 100 90 90
CONCHAS......................... 48 65 45 62 / 90 90 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 64 41 58 / 90 80 90 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 64 45 62 / 90 90 90 80
CLOVIS.......................... 50 65 47 65 / 80 80 90 50
PORTALES........................ 50 68 45 67 / 80 80 90 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 71 43 64 / 90 80 90 70
ROSWELL......................... 55 77 49 71 / 60 30 80 30
PICACHO......................... 47 72 40 66 / 60 20 70 40
ELK............................. 43 71 35 65 / 60 20 70 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ214-215-223-226>239.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ213.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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