508
FXUS65 KABQ 051825 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1225 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
A 554DM 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ THIS
MORNING, PROMPTING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE STATE AS OF 3AM. SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING TO AID THE PRECIPITATION. THE LOW
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRAJECTORY EASTWARD TOWARDS NM TODAY, WHERE
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS, AROUND 40-50KTS. WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE TO SUPPORT DEEPENING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR MONDAY ARE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AFTER A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THE NIGHT BEFORE AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY. THIS
MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT SYNOPTIC ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD WORK TO COMPENSATE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO.
ALONG WITH CONVECTION, SOILS ACROSS EASTERN NM HAVE BECOME PRIMED BY
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO WHERE IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH RAINFALL TO BEGIN THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY, TO
WHERE A WIDER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PUSH UP THROUGH
EASTERN NM TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PSEUDO-SURFACE LOW, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING, WORK TO ENFORCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS FAVOR WIDESPREAD 1-
2" ACROSS THE AREA, AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3"+ HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE ISSUED AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM BEGINNING AT 2PM MONDAY. WITH THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF OF PRECIPITATION, ZONES SOUTH OF I-40 SEE THEIR
WATCH GO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40 GO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW, SPITTING OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 9,000FT. MOST
LIKELY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 8-12", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.5-2FT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HAVE UPGRADED THE
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, AND HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN ZONE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS ROUTES NEAR AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN PASSES, AND THERE IS A CHANCE THESE ROADS MAY BECOME
IMPASSABLE FOR A TIME DUE TO THE SNOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING THE
REGION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
SWING AROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BECOMES A CATALYST FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW MAY BE OBSERVED
ABOVE 10,000FT. A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOVES THE LOW
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, BUT
STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NM. HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, MAINLY FOCUSED
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS TREND LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. ONE LAST MENTION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD: A SURFACE HIGH IS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK, AND WITH MOIST ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA, THIS PRESSURE AND MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY FORCE A
GUSTY GAP WIND THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE. PREVAILING WINDS WILL TURN STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KABQ WHERE GUSTS OVER 35 KT
ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, TRANSITIONING TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT, AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD
MVFR (LESS THAN 3000 FT) AND SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR (LESS THAN
1000 FT) CEILINGS WILL THEN REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFOCUS TOWARD THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CELLS WRAPPING INTO WESTERN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE BREEZY TO
WINDY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY,
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S AND ANTECEDENT WETTER
CONDITIONS LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WARMER AND DRIER TREND IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT, AND MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 37 60 40 / 80 30 60 40
DULCE........................... 59 31 53 29 / 90 40 80 40
CUBA............................ 57 32 52 33 / 70 40 80 50
GALLUP.......................... 55 31 57 33 / 80 30 70 40
EL MORRO........................ 53 30 53 36 / 70 40 70 50
GRANTS.......................... 58 31 56 32 / 50 40 70 40
QUEMADO......................... 56 31 55 35 / 50 30 70 30
MAGDALENA....................... 59 36 59 39 / 30 40 80 30
DATIL........................... 55 31 55 35 / 50 30 70 30
RESERVE......................... 60 29 58 30 / 40 20 70 10
GLENWOOD........................ 64 34 61 34 / 40 20 60 10
CHAMA........................... 53 29 47 29 / 90 50 90 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 37 47 38 / 80 60 90 50
PECOS........................... 57 34 50 34 / 80 70 90 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 33 47 31 / 90 70 100 60
RED RIVER....................... 44 28 38 26 / 90 70 100 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 30 44 25 / 90 80 100 60
TAOS............................ 57 31 49 29 / 90 60 90 50
MORA............................ 53 32 48 30 / 90 80 100 50
ESPANOLA........................ 64 38 54 38 / 70 60 90 40
SANTA FE........................ 58 37 50 37 / 80 60 90 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 38 54 37 / 70 60 90 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 44 58 44 / 40 50 80 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 43 60 43 / 30 50 70 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 43 62 43 / 30 50 70 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 43 60 43 / 40 50 70 40
BELEN........................... 68 41 64 41 / 20 50 70 40
BERNALILLO...................... 67 42 60 42 / 40 50 70 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 40 62 41 / 30 40 70 40
CORRALES........................ 67 41 61 43 / 40 50 70 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 40 63 42 / 30 40 70 40
PLACITAS........................ 63 41 56 42 / 40 60 80 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 42 59 43 / 40 50 70 40
SOCORRO......................... 70 42 68 44 / 20 40 70 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 36 52 38 / 50 50 80 50
TIJERAS......................... 61 38 54 39 / 40 50 80 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 36 54 36 / 50 60 80 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 33 56 33 / 50 60 80 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 34 51 34 / 60 70 80 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 36 57 36 / 30 60 70 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 35 56 35 / 30 60 70 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 40 62 41 / 20 70 50 20
RUIDOSO......................... 61 35 56 37 / 20 70 50 10
CAPULIN......................... 49 36 45 33 / 90 90 100 80
RATON........................... 56 37 50 34 / 90 80 100 70
SPRINGER........................ 57 38 50 36 / 90 80 100 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 35 51 34 / 90 80 90 40
CLAYTON......................... 53 43 54 41 / 100 90 100 80
ROY............................. 55 40 53 38 / 100 90 90 50
CONCHAS......................... 64 45 62 43 / 90 90 90 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 42 59 41 / 80 90 80 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 46 62 43 / 90 90 80 40
CLOVIS.......................... 65 47 66 45 / 80 90 50 20
PORTALES........................ 67 46 67 44 / 80 90 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 45 64 43 / 80 90 70 20
ROSWELL......................... 77 49 71 48 / 30 80 30 5
PICACHO......................... 71 42 66 41 / 20 70 40 10
ELK............................. 69 38 65 38 / 20 70 30 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ215-223-227>234.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ213-214.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ226-235>239.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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