973
FXUS65 KABQ 060002 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL BE MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS SAME REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
OUR COOL AND WET START TO MAY CONTINUES AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AZ AND INTO NM. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BUTT UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH 40'S AND 50'S
DEWPOINTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY IS PUSHING
A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVER MOST OF EASTERN NM.
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING A SOUTHERLY SPEED MAX ALOFT INTO NM,
THERE IS PLENTY OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE LOW IS ALSO QUITE STRONG WITH LOTS OF
INSTABILITY AMID THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW. NEGATIVE LI'S OF -1
TO -3 C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ARE SUFFICIENTLY AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH A TRANSIENT DRY
SLOT IS LIMITING ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS IN SOUTHEAST NM WHERE LI'S ARE ON THE
ORDER OF -5 TO -7 C WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE RISING OVER 1500 J/KG.
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF DE BACA, ROOSEVELT, CHAVES, AND TO
AN EXTENT EASTERN LINCOLN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE BACKING (EASTERLY) WINDS LEADING
TO SOME VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES (0-1 KM SRH OF 200-500
M^2/S^2). THE TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND HIGHLIGHTS
THIS THREAT WITH A LESSER, BUT STILL PRESENT, MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
STORMS WILL BE FAST-PACED, GENERALLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT
25-35 KT (WITH BUNKERS RIGHT-MOVING CELLS DEPICTED ONLY A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND EASTWARD HEADING FROM THIS). THE FAST STORM
MOTION WILL LIMIT DOWNPOUR TIME OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA, BUT
TRAINING OR REPEATED MOVEMENT OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA, WILL
CREATE HYDROLOGY INUNDATION OVER SMALL VULNERABLE BASINS. STORMS
WILL SHIFT THEIR FOCUS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHILE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER TO 8 KFT BY THEN, BUT THE MORE
NOTABLE AND APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO 9 KFT
AND HIGHER. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING WITH NO
EXPANSION, BUT HIGH PEAKS IN THE TUSAS AND JEMEZ WILL GET SNOW-
CAPPED AGAIN BY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WOULD MORPH IN WESTERN
ZONES TO A SHOWERY RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WOULD WOBBLE OVER INTERIOR NM TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS GENERALLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM WITH A
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA IN WESTERN NM. STILL, EVEN ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY INDICES BECOMING A BIT MORE HOMOGENEOUS
(LI'S GENERALLY BETWEEN -1 TO -3 C). SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGEST
OUTSIDE OF A ROUGHLY 100-150 MILE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT ADEQUATELY JUXTAPOSE INGREDIENTS
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOTS
OF SMALL HAIL WOULD STILL BE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
WELL BELOW NORMAL BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW WILL WANDER
INTO THE PANHANDLES AND EVENTUALLY INTERIOR OK TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
A SECOND LOW DOES A FUJIWARA DANCE ON THE BACKSIDE AND DROPS INTO
AZ. SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD DWINDLE IN COVERAGE, BUT NOT END
OVER NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OK/KS WEDNESDAY WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
LOW DROPPING TOWARD THE AZ-SONORA BORDER. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST, BUT DYNAMIC UPPER FORCING WILL LARGELY BE LOST. MOISTURE
WILL BE MODEST AS WELL WITH MID 30'S TO LOW 40'S DEWPOINTS AND LOW
(600 J/KG OR LESS) CAPE. THIS WILL KEEP A CROP OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
ENTERS MORE OF THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SPILL
WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE WITH SOME SPEED ACCELERATIONS THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A SUBDUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY
WITH SOME SUBTLE DRYING AND STABILIZATION OCCURRING IN WESTERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM UP A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST ZONES. THIS WOULD OFFER FAINT
ASSISTANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ZONES WHERE A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
DEVELOP, BUT WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS AND LESS RAIN EFFICIENCY
THAN PRECEDING DAYS. A SIMILAR TREND WOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH EVEN LESS FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WOULD START TO REACH OR
BARELY EXCEED NORMAL AGAIN IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
A SYNOPTIC EAST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN IN EASTERN
ZONES. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL DRAW IN MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND. THIS
MOISTURE INTRUSION WOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE MOISTURE DOES
NOT GET FULLY ERODED AWAY INTO SUNDAY, THERE DOES LOOK TO BE LESS
COVERAGE OF STORMS THEN DUE TO STABILITY LIMITATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LESS ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS.
PERSISTENT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE YIELDING
HIGHER HUMIDITY THAT SHOULD STUNT AND IMPEDE FIRE GROWTH THIS
WEEK, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE LIKELY
SEEING THE MOST SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN CONTRAST,
SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL, BUT STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS WILL PERIODICALLY
IMPACT THESE AREAS. WHILE NEW WILDFIRE IGNITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FROM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, THE HIGHER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
TONIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD SLOW, IF NOT
CEASE, GROWTH. LESS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST, BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD RECHARGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MOIST
PUSH FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO MULTIPLY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 39 58 40 65 / 40 70 40 50
DULCE........................... 30 50 29 61 / 60 90 40 50
CUBA............................ 33 52 33 58 / 60 80 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 27 55 32 62 / 40 70 40 70
EL MORRO........................ 30 50 34 57 / 40 70 50 80
GRANTS.......................... 29 56 33 61 / 40 70 40 60
QUEMADO......................... 30 54 35 60 / 40 70 30 80
MAGDALENA....................... 34 58 38 60 / 40 70 50 70
DATIL........................... 30 54 33 59 / 30 70 40 80
RESERVE......................... 25 56 29 65 / 30 70 10 70
GLENWOOD........................ 31 59 33 69 / 30 60 10 50
CHAMA........................... 29 44 26 52 / 70 100 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 47 37 55 / 80 90 50 70
PECOS........................... 34 49 34 56 / 90 90 50 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 47 30 52 / 80 100 60 50
RED RIVER....................... 29 40 24 44 / 90 100 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 44 25 48 / 90 100 70 60
TAOS............................ 30 47 27 56 / 80 90 50 50
MORA............................ 31 45 29 51 / 90 90 60 70
ESPANOLA........................ 37 54 38 64 / 80 90 40 50
SANTA FE........................ 38 51 37 57 / 80 90 50 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 56 37 61 / 80 90 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 59 44 64 / 70 70 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 60 45 65 / 60 70 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 62 37 67 / 60 60 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 60 43 66 / 60 70 40 60
BELEN........................... 41 66 44 69 / 50 60 40 60
BERNALILLO...................... 42 61 41 66 / 70 80 40 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 63 39 68 / 60 60 40 60
CORRALES........................ 41 61 41 67 / 60 70 40 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 64 42 68 / 50 60 40 60
PLACITAS........................ 41 57 42 63 / 70 80 40 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 59 43 65 / 60 70 40 60
SOCORRO......................... 41 67 45 70 / 40 50 50 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 53 37 58 / 80 80 40 60
TIJERAS......................... 39 55 39 60 / 70 80 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 54 36 59 / 80 80 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 57 33 61 / 80 70 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 51 34 55 / 90 70 40 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 57 36 60 / 70 60 40 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 57 36 61 / 70 50 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 63 41 67 / 80 40 30 50
RUIDOSO......................... 31 56 33 59 / 80 40 20 60
CAPULIN......................... 36 44 32 46 / 90 100 90 70
RATON........................... 37 48 33 53 / 90 100 80 60
SPRINGER........................ 36 48 35 57 / 90 90 70 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 49 33 55 / 90 80 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 43 51 41 56 / 90 100 90 70
ROY............................. 38 51 36 57 / 100 90 70 50
CONCHAS......................... 44 59 42 64 / 90 80 60 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 61 41 62 / 90 70 40 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 60 42 63 / 90 80 50 40
CLOVIS.......................... 47 64 43 66 / 90 50 30 20
PORTALES........................ 46 66 42 66 / 90 40 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 65 43 66 / 90 60 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 49 73 48 73 / 90 20 10 20
PICACHO......................... 41 66 42 66 / 80 30 10 40
ELK............................. 37 63 39 64 / 70 30 10 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ215-223-227>234.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ213-214.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ226-235>239.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page