553
FXUS65 KABQ 061819 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1219 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT RISES IN RIVERS AND
ARROYOS, AS WELL AS WATER OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLICK OR SNOWPACKED ROADS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELERS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A PESKY AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE AZ/
NM BORDER WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONE AND OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING. GULF MOISTURE HAS STREAMED UP AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LOW WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND RAIN WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN NM.
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING, PRECIPITATION HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AT CLINES CORNERS, LAS
VEGAS, AND LOS ALAMOS. SNOW IS ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING
AND AROUND MIDDAY, FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM, NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM, FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, SO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT. UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE PEAKS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ON TOP OF THE ALREADY 4 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS, HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ZONE UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM DUE TO BEING UNDER THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION BEFORE
SPREADING DOWN TO SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH VERY LOW HEIGHTS UNDER THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AREAWIDE!
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS
TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST LOW EXITING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE SECOND NORTHERN UPPER LOW PIVOTS SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS LOW MEANDERS EAST OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RECYCLED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RANGES.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO AROUND 0.10 TO 0.25
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY'S AND TODAY'S AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AFTER THE MAIN UPPER LOW EXITS THE STATE, ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER
LOW WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ. THIS LOW WILL
BE SLOWLY FILLING, BUT ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND THE
MAIN ENERGY WILL BE GOING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL PREVAIL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOCAL AND AZ. MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD BE RECYCLED IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WILL GIVE
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THE BEST CHANCES AT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF NM. THE UPSLOPE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR STORMS
TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A BREEZY
GAP WIND WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FIRST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD, THEN AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. LESS STORM COVERAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
ALL AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP SHOWERY AND
STORMY WEATHER WITH LOTS OF LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TEND TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, BUT ALL
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE (NEARLY THE ENTIRE ABQ
FORECAST AREA) WILL SUCCUMB TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO REDUCTIONS IN CEILING/VISIBILITY
DURING DOWNPOURS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNBURST
WINDS, VERY SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER RAIN-SOAKED AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD MVFR (< 3000FT CEILINGS AND
5SM VIS) AND PATCHY IFR TO LIFR (200-1000FT CEILINGS AND 1/2-3SM
VIS) CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY, BEING SLOW TO
BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. MORE DAYTIME
TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO A REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT.
LOWER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY BECOMING NEAR CRITICAL
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. GREEN UP FROM THIS WEEK'S
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 36 66 42 / 90 30 30 10
DULCE........................... 48 26 62 33 / 100 20 40 30
CUBA............................ 48 30 58 34 / 90 30 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 54 31 63 32 / 70 50 60 20
EL MORRO........................ 50 36 58 35 / 80 50 70 30
GRANTS.......................... 54 32 61 33 / 70 50 60 20
QUEMADO......................... 55 35 61 35 / 70 50 80 40
MAGDALENA....................... 57 39 61 41 / 70 50 70 30
DATIL........................... 54 35 59 37 / 70 50 80 40
RESERVE......................... 57 28 68 32 / 60 20 70 20
GLENWOOD........................ 61 32 73 34 / 50 10 50 10
CHAMA........................... 42 26 54 32 / 100 40 50 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 36 56 41 / 100 30 60 20
PECOS........................... 44 32 54 35 / 90 40 60 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 28 53 32 / 100 50 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 23 42 25 / 100 60 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 21 48 25 / 100 60 50 20
TAOS............................ 45 25 56 30 / 100 50 40 20
MORA............................ 40 27 51 30 / 100 50 60 20
ESPANOLA........................ 49 35 63 41 / 90 30 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 44 35 56 39 / 90 30 60 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 34 61 37 / 90 30 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 44 64 46 / 80 40 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 43 66 47 / 70 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 43 68 44 / 70 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 42 67 46 / 70 30 40 20
BELEN........................... 62 41 69 42 / 70 50 40 20
BERNALILLO...................... 57 41 68 44 / 80 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 40 68 41 / 70 40 40 20
CORRALES........................ 57 40 68 44 / 70 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 40 68 42 / 70 40 40 20
PLACITAS........................ 53 41 63 44 / 80 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 41 67 45 / 70 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 64 44 71 46 / 60 50 50 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 36 58 40 / 80 40 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 52 38 60 41 / 80 40 50 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 36 61 38 / 80 40 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 31 61 33 / 70 40 50 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 32 55 35 / 70 30 50 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 36 61 38 / 70 40 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 35 61 36 / 50 40 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 40 66 43 / 50 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 36 59 38 / 40 20 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 40 31 46 31 / 100 90 70 20
RATON........................... 44 31 53 34 / 100 80 50 10
SPRINGER........................ 45 33 56 34 / 100 70 40 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 32 55 33 / 90 50 60 20
CLAYTON......................... 48 40 56 40 / 100 90 60 10
ROY............................. 47 36 55 36 / 100 70 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 55 42 63 42 / 80 60 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 41 60 41 / 70 30 40 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 42 61 42 / 90 50 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 60 44 63 43 / 50 30 20 10
PORTALES........................ 62 42 65 42 / 40 30 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 43 64 42 / 60 30 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 69 48 70 48 / 30 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 64 41 65 42 / 40 20 30 10
ELK............................. 61 38 66 39 / 30 10 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ215-227>232-234.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ210.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ213-214.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52
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