300
FXUS65 KABQ 070018 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
618 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RISES IN RIVERS, CREEKS AND ARROYOS, AS WELL AS WATER
OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLICK OR SNOWPACKED ROADS WILL
IMPACT TRAVELERS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN, WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AVERAGE BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE UPPER LOW IS SQUARELY OVER NM NOW, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL.
DESPITE THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING SHAPE, ORBITING THE LOW IN A
CYCLONIC MOTION. THIS INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT COMES
AFTER A MORNING LULL IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LAST NIGHT. THE MOST BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE HAVE OCCURRED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NM WHERE DESTABILIZATION INITIATED. IF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DO NOT
ERODE MUCH MORE IN NORTHEASTERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IT MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL, AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME, IF NOT EARLIER. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
IN THE TUSAS, EVEN AT 10 KFT WITH THE HOPEWELL SNOTEL SITE READING
34 F AS OF THIS WRITING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HIGH SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL NOW RUN
THROUGH 10 PM MDT WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO END
PRIOR. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS STABILIZING
AGAIN, AND THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE EXITING NORTHEAST NM. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, THE CONCERNS WILL TURN TO LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG. THE WATER-LOGGED NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOME ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL AREAS
WOULD BE THE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOGGY SOILS,
BUT PATCHY TO ISOLATED AREAS COULD EVEN DEVELOP IN PORTIONS IN OTHER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES, AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SHRINK LATE
TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO KS AND OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT LOW DROPPING INTO AZ AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE. FLOW
ALOFT WILL REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY, AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
A FEW DEGREES, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL REDUCE BY A FEW (5-8 F) DEGREES
WEDNESDAY, AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH LI’S ADVERTISED
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO -2 C WITH THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES BEING THE MOST
STABLE. A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS DUE TO LESS SHEAR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SLOW THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP
AND MOVING OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL INTO FAR WEST TX AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
AND "GARDEN VARIETY" CONVECTION IS FORECAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM. LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE THE WARMING. SUFFICIENT PWATS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME
HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, GIVING WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRINGING SOME DRYING AND CONTINUED WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS BY MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE TRENDING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
TONIGHT WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM FAR WESTERN AZ.
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NM LATE TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS FROM NEAR GALLUP TO ABQ WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WHERE ICING AND LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE
HIGHEST ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER OF NORTHEAST NM AND NEAR NORTHERN
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH COLD TEMPS AND WET SOILS.
NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR VSBYS <1SM ARE >60% IN THESE WITH
ALMOST ZERO PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CROP OF SHRA/TS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL HAS LEFT FUELS SOAKED OR
SNOW COVERED IN MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN, AND EAST
CENTRAL NM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY REGENERATING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL
CONTINUE TO ADD A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE AGAIN (ON A MORE SPOTTY BASIS) WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION,
THE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY RECENT OR NEW
LIGHTING-INITIATED WILDFIRES SHOULD HAVE VERY LOW AND SLOW GROWTH
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, STORM
COVERAGE WILL REDUCE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP AREA-
WIDE. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE RATHER SUBDUED
PER LATEST MODEL RUNS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORMS IS BEING MODELED
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REDUCE AGAIN INTO SUNDAY. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOUTHWESTERLIES
WOULD START TO INCREASE WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS COULD START TO INTRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
THE BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 66 42 73 / 40 30 10 10
DULCE........................... 24 59 33 66 / 30 40 30 40
CUBA............................ 31 57 35 63 / 30 40 30 20
GALLUP.......................... 32 61 31 70 / 40 60 30 10
EL MORRO........................ 33 57 34 65 / 50 70 50 20
GRANTS.......................... 32 59 33 67 / 50 60 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 35 61 36 68 / 30 80 50 10
MAGDALENA....................... 38 60 41 67 / 40 60 60 20
DATIL........................... 34 58 36 66 / 30 80 50 20
RESERVE......................... 31 66 34 74 / 30 70 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 34 71 38 79 / 20 50 20 10
CHAMA........................... 23 51 30 58 / 40 50 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 55 40 61 / 40 50 30 40
PECOS........................... 31 54 34 61 / 50 60 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 51 32 59 / 60 40 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 24 44 26 49 / 70 50 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 46 25 53 / 70 50 30 40
TAOS............................ 25 56 30 63 / 50 40 20 30
MORA............................ 26 49 29 57 / 70 60 30 60
ESPANOLA........................ 35 62 40 69 / 40 40 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 37 58 42 62 / 40 50 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 62 40 66 / 40 40 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 64 45 69 / 30 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 65 47 71 / 30 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 37 67 40 73 / 30 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 65 45 71 / 30 30 20 20
BELEN........................... 43 68 45 74 / 40 30 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 40 66 43 72 / 30 30 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 67 41 73 / 40 30 30 20
CORRALES........................ 40 66 43 72 / 30 30 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 67 44 74 / 40 30 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 39 63 43 68 / 30 30 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 65 45 71 / 30 30 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 43 69 46 75 / 40 40 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 57 39 63 / 30 40 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 37 60 40 66 / 30 40 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 59 38 65 / 30 40 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 61 34 67 / 30 40 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 56 36 61 / 30 40 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 61 38 66 / 40 40 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 61 38 66 / 40 40 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 67 44 71 / 30 30 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 36 58 37 62 / 30 40 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 30 47 32 58 / 90 60 20 20
RATON........................... 32 54 33 63 / 90 50 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 33 58 34 65 / 80 40 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 55 33 61 / 60 50 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 39 56 40 64 / 90 60 20 10
ROY............................. 35 57 37 64 / 80 40 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 41 64 42 70 / 60 30 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 63 42 68 / 40 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 63 42 69 / 60 30 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 42 64 43 69 / 40 20 10 10
PORTALES........................ 41 66 42 70 / 30 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 65 43 70 / 40 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 47 72 49 74 / 20 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 40 65 43 68 / 20 30 20 20
ELK............................. 37 63 40 66 / 20 30 20 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ213-214.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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