933
FXUS65 KABQ 071144 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
- EXPECT RISES IN RIVERS, CREEKS AND ARROYOS, AS WELL AS WATER
OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
WITH RAPID SNOW MELT.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
CLIMB BACK TO AVERAGE COME LATE WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE REGION IS NOW BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATIONS, ONE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT IMPACTED THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
ANOTHER ONE OVER LAS VEGAS, NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NM,
INCLUDING THE ABQ METRO OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWER TO CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH MID MORNING. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IN THE NEAR TERM IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN NM.
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE ARE FAVORED DUE
TO THEM RECEIVING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM
SNOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE STILL PRESENT AND THIS IS WHY NBM
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE ARE GENERALLY UNDER 10
PERCENT FOR THE ESTANCIA VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IS A LITTLE HIGHER (30%) ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING RATON PASS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO KS AND OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SECOND LOW OVER LAS VEGAS, NV DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ AND SLOWLY FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS GREATER THAN YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DAM, TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER BY AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES (STILL 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY)AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (90TH PERCENTILE) PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES, WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND ABOVE 0 DEG C, PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN WITH SNOW ONLY FAVORED
ABOVE 10,000 FEET. THIS MEANS THAT MID SLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THAT SAW SNOW EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL SEE RAIN ON SNOW
ACCELERATING THE ALREADY RAPID MELTING AND LEADING TO MORE RUNOFF
INTO ALREADY ELEVATED CREEKS, STREAM AND RIVERS. FOR THAT REASON,
INDIVIDUALS IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR FLOODING ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ TURNING INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
OVER NEW MEXICO, WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS, INCLUDING THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS,
THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY THANKS TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING.
ON THURSDAY, THE STATE WILL BE BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN CA AND THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
COLORADO AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY, AND
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MOSTLY A RINSE AND REPEAT TO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS THE STATE REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND THE UPPER LOW THAT IMPACTED THE STATE EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CUTTING OFF AGAIN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS LOWER ON FRIDAY AND LIMITED
TO MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS,
PROBABLY DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAVING A LITTLE MORE
INFLUENCE AND PROVIDING MORE MID LEVEL CAPPING. THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SHIFT A LITTLE MORE EAST WITH THE AXIS MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS AND SENDING A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
FRONT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK TO POTENTIALLY FILL AND DRIFT
SOUTH INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND TURNS INTO
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER
LOWER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY SCOUR
OUT THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE STATE WITH PWATS GOING FROM 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES ON MONDAY AND 0.2 TO 0.3
INCHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY BEFORE
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEST WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE COME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES
ACROSS CENTRAL NM FROM KGUP TO KSAF AND KCQC. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN NM THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND FREEZING
FOG. THIS INCLUDES KAXX AND KSKX. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES
WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STORMS. LOCALIZED AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO HANG ON ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING KCAO, DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LOOK TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AFTER SUNSET
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SOME MORE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE UPPER RGV, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA
AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
LOWER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WITH WARMER YET STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES DUE TO THE RECENT WET
PATTERN. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
DUE TO A REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT AND EASTERLY FLOW. DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS. THESE WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO THE SAME AREAS ON TUESDAY. THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS COULD SEE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COME NEXT TUESDAY, BUT THE WET PATTERN THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED GREEN UP FROM THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ASSOCIATED FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 41 72 43 / 30 10 10 0
DULCE........................... 60 33 67 32 / 30 20 50 10
CUBA............................ 56 34 64 37 / 40 30 30 5
GALLUP.......................... 60 30 69 32 / 70 30 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 58 36 65 38 / 80 40 30 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 32 68 35 / 70 40 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 35 68 40 / 80 50 30 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 42 66 45 / 50 50 40 5
DATIL........................... 59 37 66 41 / 70 60 40 5
RESERVE......................... 66 32 74 36 / 60 30 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 36 79 39 / 40 20 10 0
CHAMA........................... 52 30 59 32 / 30 30 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 42 61 43 / 40 20 50 10
PECOS........................... 54 36 60 37 / 50 30 70 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 33 59 35 / 30 20 50 10
RED RIVER....................... 42 27 48 29 / 40 20 60 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 24 53 24 / 40 20 60 10
TAOS............................ 55 30 62 31 / 30 10 50 10
MORA............................ 50 30 57 32 / 50 20 80 10
ESPANOLA........................ 62 41 68 41 / 30 20 40 10
SANTA FE........................ 56 41 62 42 / 40 30 60 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 41 66 41 / 40 30 50 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 49 69 51 / 30 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 47 71 49 / 30 40 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 46 73 47 / 30 40 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 47 71 48 / 30 40 20 5
BELEN........................... 68 43 74 44 / 30 50 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 65 46 72 46 / 30 40 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 42 73 43 / 30 40 20 5
CORRALES........................ 65 45 72 46 / 30 40 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 42 73 43 / 30 40 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 62 46 68 48 / 30 40 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 47 71 48 / 30 40 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 46 75 48 / 40 50 30 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 41 63 43 / 30 40 40 10
TIJERAS......................... 60 43 66 45 / 30 40 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 40 66 41 / 30 40 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 61 35 67 35 / 30 30 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 36 61 38 / 30 30 50 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 40 66 42 / 40 40 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 38 67 40 / 30 40 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 45 70 46 / 30 20 50 10
RUIDOSO......................... 58 39 61 41 / 30 20 60 10
CAPULIN......................... 48 33 58 35 / 50 10 30 5
RATON........................... 54 33 63 35 / 40 10 40 5
SPRINGER........................ 57 34 65 35 / 30 10 50 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 34 60 36 / 40 20 70 10
CLAYTON......................... 56 40 65 41 / 40 10 20 0
ROY............................. 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 50 10
CONCHAS......................... 64 42 70 44 / 30 20 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 43 67 44 / 20 20 40 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 42 70 44 / 20 10 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 64 45 68 47 / 5 5 10 5
PORTALES........................ 66 43 70 45 / 5 5 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 44 71 46 / 10 10 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 71 50 75 53 / 10 10 20 10
PICACHO......................... 65 43 68 45 / 20 10 50 5
ELK............................. 65 41 66 42 / 20 10 50 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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