695
FXUS65 KABQ 251823 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1223 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL TURN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. SOME GUSTY AND DRY STORMS
PRODUCING MINIMAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LOW
STRATUS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHER MOISTURE HAS FILLED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK 5 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY'S READINGS IN THIS PART OF THE STATE, WHILE THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL GREATLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ATOP MUCH OF THIS AIRMASS, LIMITING THE
AREA OF LIKELY CI TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW CELL
ORGANIZATION THREATENING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S, AND MORESO OVER
THE CAPROCK OF EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST, WITH CELLS LIKELY
WEAKENING A TAD AS THEY PROGRESS OVER A MORE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. AREAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE STANDARD DRY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S WILL MOST LIKELY BY DRY PRODUCING
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL ENHANCE THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND INTO SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE.
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY IN THE AREA IMMEDIATELY WEST AND
DOWN FROM THE TIJERAS CANYON IN THE ABQ METRO AREA. THIS WILL PUSH
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO START MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN NM,
WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS CO AND
NORTHERN NM. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ACT AS AN IMPETUS TO
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY MID-DAY.
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH CELL MERGERS AND OUTFLOW DRIVEN SECONDARY UPDRAFTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU MONDAY EVENING. FAST STEERING FLOW PUSHING
STORMS WILL LIMIT THEIR RESIDENCY TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION,
LIMITING THE THREAT OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. ANY SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN
NM WILL BE DRY PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY CONTINUES TO
SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY, WHERE LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS HELP AID
IN A RISING MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.6"). IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A SHORT, WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE, HAMPERING ANY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RISE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHALL BE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (OWING TO THE
RIDGE ABOVE). ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANY SUBSIDENCE AT OR
AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL, WHICH MAY FURTHER INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING (OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS). THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY,
INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT AROUND THE REGION, SPECIFICALLY IN
EASTERN NM. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES, A THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS BECOMES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE MAY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT IF LOCATIONS ARE UNABLE TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. ALONGSIDE EASTERN NM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAINING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE INVERTED-V SHAPES, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS, MORE SO ALONG THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.
LATE WEEK, A CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN CA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THIS
LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY, REMAINING AROUND THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEKEND. WITH THAT, INCREASED MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THAT TIME, WITH ROUTINE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LOW MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO SUCTION SOME
MOISTURE WESTWARD, INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIP IN AREAS
THAT ARE LIKELY TO ROUTINELY SEE DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND VIRGA. WITH
MOISTURE BEING PULLED WESTWARD, AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG THE BURN SCARS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ARE POSSIBLE, AND WITH
LIKELY SLOW STORM MOTION, BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS MAY
ARISE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LASTLY, CONTINUED SURGES OF BACKDOOR FRONTS AND MOISTURE MAY INDUCE
A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN A FEW
NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT,
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
IN THESE, GIVEN THAT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE CANYON WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. ECX MOS GUIDANCE IS
VERY BULLISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL SUCTION ACTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN CA LOW
PULLING THE MOISTURE WESTWARD. NEVERTHELESS, WILL BE SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALONGSIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (VFR) CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, EXCEPT IN THE VERY FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOSTLY
COME TO AN END BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING, BUT A FEW WILL
PERIODICALLY REDEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXPAND AND REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS. ALSO, GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SURGE INTO KABQ
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KT POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A TWO FACED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE MESSAGE REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER MOISTURE BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED HUMIDITY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DRY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS EACH DAY LIMITING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH MORNING, AND PERHAPS TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS AND A STRAY ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HIGHLANDS, JEMEZ, AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 47 81 48 / 0 0 10 0
DULCE........................... 79 39 76 36 / 0 0 30 0
CUBA............................ 78 44 76 44 / 0 10 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 79 36 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 75 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 38 79 40 / 0 0 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 78 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 81 50 78 51 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 78 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 83 36 84 41 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 43 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 73 39 69 37 / 0 5 30 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 76 51 73 50 / 0 10 30 5
PECOS........................... 75 46 71 46 / 20 20 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 44 70 42 / 30 10 50 10
RED RIVER....................... 63 37 60 35 / 30 20 60 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 36 64 32 / 40 30 60 10
TAOS............................ 77 42 73 38 / 20 20 40 5
MORA............................ 69 42 67 40 / 50 40 60 20
ESPANOLA........................ 85 50 80 47 / 5 10 30 5
SANTA FE........................ 79 49 74 49 / 10 20 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 49 78 48 / 10 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 56 82 57 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 54 84 53 / 0 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 54 86 52 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 55 84 54 / 0 5 5 5
BELEN........................... 88 50 86 49 / 0 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 87 54 84 53 / 0 10 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 88 50 86 49 / 0 5 5 5
CORRALES........................ 88 54 85 53 / 0 5 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 51 86 50 / 0 5 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 83 53 80 54 / 0 10 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 54 84 53 / 0 5 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 91 54 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 48 76 49 / 5 10 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 81 50 78 50 / 5 10 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 48 78 46 / 5 10 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 46 78 43 / 10 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 75 46 72 44 / 10 20 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 81 47 78 46 / 0 5 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 47 78 46 / 0 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 52 83 53 / 0 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 78 50 76 48 / 0 0 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 46 62 41 / 50 60 80 30
RATON........................... 70 47 68 43 / 70 50 70 20
SPRINGER........................ 73 48 69 45 / 60 40 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 46 70 44 / 40 40 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 64 50 64 48 / 40 50 60 30
ROY............................. 69 49 67 46 / 30 50 60 20
CONCHAS......................... 78 55 75 51 / 20 50 50 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 54 75 49 / 20 40 50 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 56 73 51 / 30 50 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 85 56 78 54 / 20 40 50 20
PORTALES........................ 89 57 78 52 / 20 30 40 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 56 81 52 / 20 30 50 10
ROSWELL......................... 97 60 88 59 / 0 0 10 5
PICACHO......................... 90 54 83 51 / 0 0 10 0
ELK............................. 86 50 84 49 / 0 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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