874
FXUS65 KABQ 261806 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1206 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
- A FEW STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY MAY TURN STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. GUSTY AND DRY STORMS PRODUCING MINIMAL
RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM,
PUSHING WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A STARK
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY.
A FEW STUBBORN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG
THE JEMEZ MTS AND OVER QUAY COUNTY THIS HOUR. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM, HIRES CAMS HAVE GRABBED
ONTO IT GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS TO TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
UPPED POPS A NOTCH FROM THE NBM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF PATCHY
FOG WILL BE THE RULE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WESTERN NM.
DRY WESTERLIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
VIRGA AND A FEW ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED AS A
RESULT OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FAVOR INITIATION OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG
ALONG WITH MODEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30KTS SUPPORTS SPC'S
MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY
TREK EASTWARD TOWARD THE TX LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HPCC BURN SCAR AGAIN, STORM
MOTIONS LOOK TO BE FAST ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL KICK MOISTURE BACK WEST
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY, AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVER NM WILL YIELD "POPCORN" THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFESPANS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND THREATENING DRY
LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY PROVES TO BE CHALLENGING, AND WILL
BE A CATALYST FOR STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. THE FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO HIGH GREAT PLAINS, AND
ITS POSITIONING GREATLY AFFECTS MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS NM. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO, WHICH FOLLOWS MORE CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF, IS
THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP MORE NORTH ACROSS MN/MI, WITH A WEAKER
RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN INTO KS. ALONGSIDE THIS, REMNANT CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX SHOULD AID IN PUSHING MOISTURE UP AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SETUP IN PLACE, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS ALSO SERVES FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SEEP INTO WESTERN NM, WHERE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS PRESENT, THOUGH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IN THE
MOST RECENT NAM RUN, WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH DIGS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH,
NEARLY INTO TX. WITH THAT, STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND THUS WE SEE MOISTURE
SPILL FURTHER WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NM. THIS WOULD PAVE A WAY FOR
WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOWER AND POTENTIALLY MIDDLE RGV,
THOUGH THIS ACTS AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS
AND ENSEMBLES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AS WE
MOVE INTO TUESDAY TO GET A TRUE SENSE OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
A PSEUDO-RIDGE THAT REMAINS OVER NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN THURSDAY IN ANTICIPATION FOR A UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. ALONGSIDE THIS, EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE, CONTINUING TO DRIVE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NM
AND UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS KEEPS THE THREAT OF
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK, IN
ADDITION TO DAILY ROUNDS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING THROUGH THE
CANYONS AS WELL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN LOOK POSSIBLE,
CONTINUED TO BE FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHRA/TS HAVE BEGUN FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE
NOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 10-15KT WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN NM. GREATER INSTABILITY
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL ALLOW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY PROGRESS
ONTO THE PLAINS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AND
STORM CLUSTERS THRU 9PM WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY WITH THE FOCUS FOR MVFR ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER FROM
CLAYTON TO CLOVIS AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM RATON TO LAS VEGAS AND MORIARTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH DAY, MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE DRY WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO REIGN SUPREME. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS OR GULF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO
EASTERN NM, SLOSHING EAST AND WEST EACH DAY AND NIGHT INTO PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AS A RESULT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 47 84 52 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 75 37 81 40 / 20 10 20 10
CUBA............................ 74 45 78 48 / 20 5 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 77 40 82 42 / 0 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 73 43 77 46 / 0 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 78 45 81 43 / 5 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 75 44 80 46 / 0 0 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 78 53 79 52 / 5 0 10 5
DATIL........................... 75 47 78 47 / 0 0 10 5
RESERVE......................... 82 41 86 41 / 0 0 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 48 90 46 / 0 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 67 39 73 40 / 40 10 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 49 75 53 / 40 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 68 47 73 49 / 60 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 43 73 45 / 60 20 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 35 64 38 / 70 20 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 35 66 35 / 70 10 30 10
TAOS............................ 70 41 76 42 / 60 10 20 10
MORA............................ 61 40 70 42 / 70 10 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 76 49 83 51 / 50 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 71 49 76 52 / 50 10 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 50 80 52 / 40 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 80 56 83 59 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 56 85 56 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 55 88 56 / 20 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 55 86 57 / 20 5 10 10
BELEN........................... 85 50 88 51 / 5 5 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 82 54 86 56 / 20 10 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 84 52 87 51 / 10 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 83 55 87 56 / 20 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 84 52 87 53 / 10 5 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 77 54 82 56 / 20 10 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 54 86 57 / 20 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 87 59 91 56 / 5 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 49 77 51 / 20 10 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 76 50 81 52 / 20 10 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 47 80 48 / 30 10 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 46 79 46 / 30 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 46 72 47 / 40 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 47 79 48 / 20 5 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 47 79 48 / 10 5 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 53 84 53 / 5 0 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 74 46 75 48 / 10 0 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 61 43 69 45 / 80 30 20 10
RATON........................... 66 43 75 45 / 80 20 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 68 45 74 46 / 70 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 43 71 47 / 70 10 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 65 50 73 51 / 80 40 10 20
ROY............................. 66 47 71 50 / 80 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 74 53 77 56 / 80 30 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 52 75 53 / 60 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 53 76 56 / 60 50 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 76 54 78 57 / 30 40 10 20
PORTALES........................ 78 54 79 57 / 20 30 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 54 79 56 / 60 30 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 87 60 87 61 / 10 5 20 20
PICACHO......................... 81 53 80 55 / 20 5 20 20
ELK............................. 81 47 81 51 / 5 0 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...42
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