103
FXUS65 KABQ 270539 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
- MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEK AHEAD WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, DRIER
STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
STORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE NORTHERN MTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW WILL DRAG THIS ACTIVITY EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NM AND EAST-CENTRAL NM THRU MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS GREATER INSTABILITY,
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30KT, AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE A FEW CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE THRU THE EARLY
EVENING. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS MIXING HUMIDITY TO NEAR 10% TODAY. STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM TONIGHT WILL HELP TO FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
INTO THE RGV AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH GAP WINDS WEAKER THAN LAST
NIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NORTHWEST NM AND SHEAR DECREASES CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
REGION. WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL
WORK WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING TO ALLOW FOR TERRAIN DOMINATED
STORMS TO FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RGV FROM OUTFLOWS
OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN NM BUT THE STRENGTH AND DURATION IS
LIKELY TO BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN TONIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK H5 LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A
60KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN MX UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER NM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO OK/TX WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR OVER EASTERN NM. IMPROVING
LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MTS. NORTHEAST NM MAY
ALSO BE A FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS AS A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NOW
HAS A 'SLIGHT RISK' OVER FAR EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DO FIRE UP OVER EASTERN NM AND ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
HELP TO KICK THE BOUNDARY EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY STRONGER BURST OF
GAP WINDS IN THE RGV EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER JET
EXITS THE REGION AND THE H5 RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER A BROADER AREA OF
NM. THE OVERALL PATTERN OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND VERY
DRY AIR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER WESTERN NM WILL CONTINUE. TERRAIN
DOMINATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AGAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE
THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL IN
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THIS INCLUDES IMPACTS AT KLVS, KTCC
AND KROW. LOW CIGS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH MOST ERODED BY 18Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM AS WELL. SLOW
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS WILL BE THE RULE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE LIKELY. VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NM AS WELL. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
VASTLY DIFFERENT WEATHER REGIMES WILL IMPACT EASTERN AND WESTERN NM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH AROUND
EASTERN NM EACH DAY WHILE WESTERN NM REMAINS VERY DRY WITH DAILY MIN
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 10%. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE
EXCELLENT EACH NIGHT OVER EASTERN NM WHILE POOR TO FAIR OVER WESTERN
NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
NM THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW STORM MOTION GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. STORMS OVER EASTERN NM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS THAT
DO MANAGE TO FORM ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE
MAINLY HIGH-BASED AND DRY WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 84 52 86 / 0 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 37 81 40 81 / 10 20 10 30
CUBA............................ 45 78 48 79 / 5 10 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 40 82 42 83 / 0 5 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 43 77 46 79 / 0 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 45 81 43 82 / 0 10 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 44 80 46 81 / 0 10 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 53 79 52 79 / 0 10 5 40
DATIL........................... 47 78 47 78 / 0 10 5 30
RESERVE......................... 41 86 41 86 / 0 10 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 48 90 46 91 / 0 5 0 10
CHAMA........................... 39 73 40 74 / 10 20 10 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 75 53 76 / 10 20 10 40
PECOS........................... 47 73 49 75 / 10 30 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 73 45 74 / 20 20 10 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 64 38 66 / 20 20 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 66 35 68 / 10 30 10 50
TAOS............................ 41 76 42 76 / 10 20 10 40
MORA............................ 40 70 42 73 / 10 40 20 60
ESPANOLA........................ 49 83 51 84 / 10 20 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 49 76 52 78 / 10 20 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 80 52 81 / 10 20 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 83 59 85 / 10 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 85 56 86 / 10 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 88 56 89 / 5 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 86 57 87 / 5 10 10 20
BELEN........................... 50 88 51 88 / 5 10 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 54 86 56 88 / 10 10 10 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 87 51 88 / 5 10 10 30
CORRALES........................ 55 87 56 88 / 10 10 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 87 53 88 / 5 5 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 54 82 56 84 / 10 10 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 86 57 87 / 10 10 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 59 91 56 89 / 0 10 5 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 77 51 78 / 10 20 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 50 81 52 82 / 10 20 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 80 48 80 / 10 20 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 79 46 81 / 10 20 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 72 47 74 / 10 20 10 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 79 48 79 / 5 20 10 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 79 48 79 / 5 20 10 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 84 53 83 / 0 20 10 50
RUIDOSO......................... 46 75 48 75 / 0 20 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 43 69 45 70 / 30 20 10 60
RATON........................... 43 75 45 76 / 20 20 10 50
SPRINGER........................ 45 74 46 76 / 20 20 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 71 47 74 / 10 30 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 50 73 51 75 / 40 10 20 50
ROY............................. 47 71 50 75 / 30 20 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 53 77 56 82 / 30 10 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 75 53 79 / 20 20 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 76 56 80 / 50 10 20 40
CLOVIS.......................... 54 78 57 79 / 40 10 20 40
PORTALES........................ 54 79 57 81 / 30 10 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 79 56 81 / 30 20 20 50
ROSWELL......................... 60 87 61 85 / 5 20 20 50
PICACHO......................... 53 80 55 80 / 5 20 20 60
ELK............................. 47 81 51 81 / 0 20 20 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34
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